The handout of these weapons systems, which will also be accompanied by the provision of the related training programs for Ukrainian personnel, may take place in the very short term.

This announcement was made after the meeting that the group of countries known as “Coalition of the Willing” held in London to agree on additional measures to help Ukraine withstand continued Russian attacks.

In parallel to this and in an effort to increase pressure on Russia, both the European Union and the US announced an additional round of sanctions targeting Russian companies, organizations and individuals which are deemed to be supporting the war in Ukraine. 

At least three Mirage 2000 aircraft are believed to have already been delivered to the Ukrainian armed forces, with the first one of the batch having entered Ukrainian service in February 2025. Although the total number to be delivered has not been confirmed, it is believed the initial batch comprises up to six aircraft of this type.

The possibility of France increasing its deliveries of Mirage 2000 fighters to Ukraine had already been hinted at by former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. In August 2025. Kuleba had even suggested France may deliver up to 20 fighter jets, although that point has never been confirmed by French officials.

Before deliveries to Ukraine started, the French Air and Space Force had 26 Mirage 2000-F5 in its inventory. This updated version of the Mirage 2000 fighter jet entered service with the French Air and Space Force at the turn of the century and it is currently being replaced by the Rafale multirole fighter jet.

The decision was formalized in an order recently signed by President Donald Trump, who also urged NATO allies to enhance similar intelligence-sharing efforts, according to officials who spoke with the WSJ. 

The officials said this intelligence will enable Ukraine to target refineries, pipelines, power stations, and other infrastructure located far from its borders, aiming to reduce oil supplies that support the Russian occupation. 

The intelligence, combined with more powerful weapons, could have a significantly stronger impact than Ukraine’s earlier strikes in Russia, leading to more damage to its energy infrastructure and complicating Russian air defenses. 

One option under consideration, according to US officials, is the potential transfer of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Kyiv, though no final decision has yet been made. This decision marks the first time since the war began that the Trump administration will allow Ukraine to strike Russian targets with long-range missiles.  

However, US officials are still waiting for written instructions from the White House before they can share the required intelligence, one official told the WSJ. 

Trump shifts policy on Ukraine 

Since taking office nine months ago, the Trump administration has restricted Kyiv’s access to the most advanced US-made weapons, such as ATACMS, and limited the intelligence shared for long-range strikes. 

On March 5, 2025, CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed the US had cut intelligence sharing with Ukraine, followed two days later by Maxar suspending Kyiv’s satellite imagery access on an “administrative request.” The decision was reversed a week later. 

Throughout spring 2025, the Pentagon quietly prevented Ukraine from using US-made ATACMS to hit targets inside Russia, requiring case-by-case approval from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The same limitations were placed on European missiles that depend on US technology or intelligence, including Franco-British SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles. 

The recent decision to allow more intelligence signifies a change in the Trump administration’s policy. 

In September 2025, the US Department of State (DOS) approved two separate arms sales to Ukraine: a proposed sale worth approximately $825 million arms of long-range missiles and a potential sale valued at $179.1 million deal to support Ukraine’s Patriot air defense systems. 

The decision also reflects a notable shift in President Trump’s approach and public statements regarding the Ukraine-Russia war. In a post on Truth Social, posted on September 23, 2025, the president said that Ukraine could reclaim all of its territory in its original state. 

In the same post, the president expressed frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling Russia a “paper tiger” and said it has been fighting the war “aimlessly” for three and a half years. 

The Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, located only 60 kilometers (38 miles) from the Ukrainian border, said in a statement that Russian air defenses shot down the drone that detonated near the plant shortly after midnight on August 24, 2025. 

The incident coincided with Ukraine’s 34th Independence Day from the Soviet Union. 

“A combat unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) belonging to the Armed Forces of Ukraine was shot down by air defense systems near the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant,” the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant confirmed on Telegram. 

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that it was “aware” of reports indicating that a transformer at the plant had caught fire due to military activity. The explosion forced unit three to operate at only 50% capacity. 

“Russia says the reactor unit’s power was reduced due to auxiliary transformer damage but fire extinguished and no injuries,” IAEA confirmed in a statement on X, adding that radiation levels at the site and in the nearby areas have remained within normal limits. 

The IAEA has repeatedly warned about the dangers of conflict near nuclear sites since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, particularly highlighting the risks of attacks on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), the largest nuclear power plant in Europe and one of the 10 largest in the world. 

Russia’s Ministry of Defense reported that it shot down a total of 95 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory on the night of August 24, 2025. At the same time, the Ukrainian Air Force said that Russia launched 72 drones and decoys, along with a cruise missile into Ukraine.  

Separately, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon has quietly limited Ukraine’s use of US-supplied ATACMS long-range missiles for strikes inside Russia, highlighting Kyiv’s dependence on domestically developed drones for such cross-border attacks. 

Local residents were the first to report the incident, which was later confirmed by the Governor of Saratov Region Roman Busargin. Busargin stated on Telegram that “Saratov and Engels were subjected to the most massive UAV attack ever.”  

According to the Ministry of Defense of Russia, 54 drones were intercepted over the Saratov region, and a fire erupted at the Engels Air Base.  

Witnesses told local media that they heard powerful explosions at both the Engels oil refinery and the air base.  

The blast at the air base was geolocated to the northwest part of the facility, where an ammunition depot is reportedly located. 

Images and video footage spread on X soon after news of the strike, showing a large cloud of smoke rising from the air base area.  

Damage to around 30 private and dacha houses has been reported in the area. Busargin said that residents living near the Engels airfield have been evacuated due to the fire on the airfield grounds.  

Additionally, operations at Kurumoch International Airport (KUF) in Samara and Saratov Gagarin Airport (GSV) have been halted due to the attack.  

Engels is located over 748 kilometers (465 miles) from the Ukrainian border and serves as a key base for strategic bombers, from which Russian aircraft have conducted long-range missile strikes during war. 

This air base hosts the 121st Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment, part of the long-range aviation unit of the Russian Aerospace Forces. Tu-95MS and Tu-160 bombers regularly conduct combat missions from this location. 

The attack took place on the night of February 23, 2025, on the eve of the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. 

In a statement posted on Telegram, the Ukrainian Air Force said the attack involved 267 Shahed-type strike drones and various imitator drones coming from multiple locations, including Orel, Bryansk, Kursk, Shatalovo, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Russia, Chauda in Crimea, and included three Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Crimea. 

The attack impacted the regions of Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Poltava, Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia. The attack was repelled by aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units and mobile fire groups from the Ukrainian Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine, the statement continued.  

As of February 24, 2025, 08:00 local time, it was confirmed that 138 Shahed and other types of attack drones had been shot down. The Ukrainian Air Force noted that 119 enemy imitator drones were lost, with three heading towards Belarus and one towards Russia. 

On February 23, 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted a statement on X in which he said that the Ukrainian people continue to “stand against aerial terror”. Zelenskyy described the attack as “the largest attack since Iranian drones began striking Ukrainian cities and villages.” 

The Ukrainian President expressed gratitude to “everyone who repels such attacks on a daily basis—our aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces. I also thank those on the ground who save lives and respond to the aftermath of shelling—the State Emergency Service, medics, and the National Police.” 

“The war continues,” he added. “Everyone capable of helping with air defense must work to enhance the protection of human life. We must do everything possible to bring a lasting peace to Ukraine.” 

Zelenskyy also noted that nearly 1,150 attack drones, more than 1,400 guided aerial bombs and 35 missiles of various types were launched in Ukraine in the week prior to the attack. 

Herman Halushchenko, Ukraine’s Energy Minister, posted on Facebook early on November 28, 2024, saying that the country’s energy sector “is under massive enemy attack”.  

Halushchenko stated that Russian forces are attacking energy sites across Ukraine. There are reports of rockets being launched in various parts of the country, along with explosions occurring in the western areas of Rivne and Lutsk.  

According to a report from the Kyiv City Military Administration (KCMA) on Telegram, Russia reportedly used air-launched cruise missiles and different types of drones for the attack. The Russian Aerospace Forces fired X-101 missiles from Tu-95MS strategic bombers, targeting Kyiv from multiple directions.  

KCMA added that debris fell in two areas of the capital, Dniprovskyi and Darnytskyi. One business had its doors and windows broken, and a truck was also damaged.  

“Our energy workers and all services are working as hard as possible to restore normality to life to help people,” Oleh Syniehubov, the Head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, stated in a Telegram post. “Thank you to everyone who is now helping and doing their part to restore the power supply.” 

As a result of the attack, electricity has been turned off in some cities as a safety measure. This includes Kyiv, Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Volyn regions.  

“Ukrenergo, the transmission system operator, has urgently started emergency power cuts,” Halushchenko said. “As soon as the security situation allows, we will clarify the consequences.” 

According to Ukrainian authorities, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians are now without electricity due to the Russian attack. The Rivne Regional Military Administration confirmed that more than 280,000 people in the Rivne region alone have been affected. 

Washington will now permit the Ukrainian military to use Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) on a case-by-case basis to strike targets in Russia, beginning with the Kursk region, where some Ukrainian units are deployed.  

These missiles, launched from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), can reach targets up to 300 kilometers (185 miles) away and are designed to neutralize high-value enemy assets, such as buildings, equipment, and troop assembly points. The ATACMS system is equipped with GPS/INS (Global Positioning System/Inertial Navigation System) guidance, enabling precise strikes. 

What about the SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow long-range missile? 

This policy shift from the US could pave the way for similar decisions by Ukraine’s other allies. In May 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron stated his readiness to allow Ukraine to use French-supplied long-range weapons to strike military targets within Russia. 

“We must allow [the Ukrainians] to neutralize the military sites from which the missiles are fired, essentially the sites from which Ukraine is being attacked,” Macron said at the time. “If we tell [the Ukrainians], ‘You cannot target the launch sites,’ we are effectively saying, ‘We are giving you weapons, but you cannot defend yourselves.’” 

Ukraine first received long-range SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow cruise missiles from France and the United Kingdom during the summer of 2023. The missile has a maximum range of 560 kilometers (350 miles), but the models delivered were reportedly modified to operate at a reduced range of 250 kilometers (155 miles).   

Developed in the 1990s by Matra and British Aerospace and now produced by European missile manufacturer MBDA, these missiles are devoid of US-made components, which allowed France and the UK to bypass Washington’s approval to supply them. However, both countries were likely waiting for the US to cross this “red line” before authorizing broader strikes. 

The delivery will occur after Ukrainian pilots and technicians complete their training, according to La Tribune, which cited sources from the French presidency and the Ministry of the Armed Forces. 

In September 2024, the first group of Ukrainian student pilots completed fighter training in France. It is unclear whether some of the first 10 cadets will convert to the French fighter or the F-16.  

The Mirage 2000 is a fighter jet developed by Dassault Aviation in the 1970s. Though the 2000-5 is an air superiority variant, the French Air Force is currently upgrading the aircraft at Cazaux Air Base in order to enhance their effectiveness in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.  

Key modifications will include the capability to launch SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow cruise missiles—typically used from a twin-seat version, but also compatible with the single-seat Mirage 2000-9 developed for the United Arab Emirates.  

These jets will also be armed with MICA air-to-air missiles and AASM Hammer bombs, which have already been supplied to Ukraine for use with their MiG-29 fighters. Additionally, electronic warfare systems will be modernized to counter Russian jamming efforts. 

Currently, two French squadrons, 1/2 Cigognes and 3/11 Corse, operate the Mirage 2000-5, which will eventually be replaced by Rafale fighters. 

According to a report by Le Monde, President Emmanuel Macron’s diplomatic cell had discussed the possibility of deducting Rafale fighter jets, the backbone of the French Air Force, to send them to Ukraine. The proposal, however, met with resistance from Lecornu, who reportedly objected to the idea. 

Instead, on June 6, 2024, President Macron announced that France would send Mirage 2000-5 jets to Ukraine and offer training for Ukrainian pilots.  

Dassault Aviation developed the Mirage 2000 fighter jet in the 1970s. The 2000-5 is a single-seat air superiority variant of the aircraft. However, the fighters to be transferred to Ukraine will be retrofitted with air-to-ground combat capabilities. 

This is not the first time the idea of Rafale fighters being supplied to Ukraine has been raised. Nearly a year before Russia’s invasion, in March 2021, Macron reportedly discussed the potential sale of Dassault Rafale jets to Ukraine during a visit with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, considering it one of his “top priorities.”

Rafale sales impact capabilities of French Air and Space Force 

The Rafale, which plays a crucial role in France’s defense strategy, has seen increased demand on the international market, complicating efforts to expand France’s own fleet.  

In 2020, then-defense minister Florence Parly set a target to increase the number of Rafale jets in service with the French Air and Space Force (AAE) from 102 to 129 by 2025. However, the fighter’s recent commercial success has delayed fulfilling that goal. 

France’s Rafale fleet was reduced following two sales:

• In January 2021, Greece ordered 18 Rafale F3R fighters. To expedite delivery, 12 of these jets were drawn directly from the French Air Force’s existing inventory.  

• In May 2021, Croatia followed suit, purchasing 12 used Rafale jets to modernize its air force. 

A parliamentary report published in November 2022 revealed that the limited number of available airframes created a concerning training deficit. In 2023, French fighter pilots were expected to fly only 147 hours, compared to 162 hours in 2022. This falls below NATO standards, which mandate that combat pilots should fly a minimum of 180 flight hours annually. 

In January 2024, the French Defense Procurement Agency (DGA) ordered 42 Rafale F4 combat aircraft to address the capability gap resulting from recent sales. The delivery is scheduled to commence in 2027. The French Air and Space Force is anticipated to achieve its initial goal of 130 Rafale fighters no earlier than 2030. 

The operation, carried out by the Ukrainian Naval Forces in coordination with the Security Service of Ukraine, targeted a key site where an estimated 400 Iranian-made attack drones were stored. 

The storage facility was situated near the village of Oktyabrsky, to the south of the city of Yeysk, which is home to an air base of the Russian Naval Aviation. 

Unconfirmed videos posted on social media believed to have been filmed in the area show a large fire and a series of secondary explosions. 

The strike is believed to have been carried out using R-360 Neptune cruise missiles. The Ukrainian General Staff claimed that the strike achieved an “accurate hit” on the facility, with secondary explosions indicating extensive damage to the site. 

“The destruction of the Shahed UAV storage base will significantly reduce the ability of the Russian occupiers to terrorize peaceful residents of Ukrainian towns and villages,” read the official statement from the Ukrainian military. 

What are Shahed drones? 

Shahed drones, specifically the Shahed-136, are Iranian-made loitering munitions that have become a key element in Russia’s arsenal during its invasion of Ukraine. These drones are low-cost, long-range unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) designed to strike ground targets with explosive warheads. They are commonly referred to as “kamikaze” or “suicide drones” due to their single-use nature—once launched, they fly directly into their targets, causing significant damage upon impact.  

Since Russia began using them in late 2022 to supplement its missile strikes, these drones have been deployed to target critical infrastructure such as energy facilities, transportation networks, and residential areas. 

“For the first time, I can officially announce that the first Dutch F-16s have been delivered to Ukraine,” Brekelmans stated on the social media platform X. “This is urgently needed. In Kharkiv, I saw the damage from Russian airstrikes and heard frequent air raid alarms. The rest of the 24 jets will follow in the coming months.” 

This delivery is part of the Netherlands’ broader military aid package to Ukraine, which now totals approximately €3.76 billion. The Dutch Ministry of Defense reports that a significant portion of the €700 million allocated since June 2024 has been dedicated to maintaining and sustaining previously delivered military systems. 

Included in this support are spare parts, ammunition, and necessary equipment for the operational continuity of systems, such as the Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers, Patriot air defense systems, and F-16 fighters. Namely, the Netherlands has committed to supplying surface-to-air missiles from its stock, €450 million for ammunition procurement, and €80 million for maintenance contracts and spare parts. 

The Dutch Air Force operated the F-16A/B Block 20 MLU (MidLife Update) variants, upgraded between 2003 and 2005, with modern combat enhancements. The MLU variant includes a Head-Up Display (HUD) for night operations, a GPS receiver, and a Westinghouse (now Northrop Grumman) AN/APG-66 fire control radar. It can deploy six AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles with a range of 150 kilometers (95 miles) and release precision-guided bombs like the GBU-24 Paveway III and JDAM. It also has the ability to carry Sniper and Litening targeting pods. 

After 45 years of service, the Royal Netherlands Air Force officially retired its F-16 fighter jets on September 27, 2024.  Their missions, from air defense to ground attacks, were taken over by the Dutch F-35 Lightning II fighters, which reached Full Operational Capability around the same day. 

The Ukrainian Air Force received its F-16 fighter jets in early August 2024, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirming their first combat use on August 27, 2024. However, the exact number of aircraft delivered and their countries of origin remain unclear at this time. 

A major attack was organized on the night of September 10, 2024. Initially, Russian news agencies said that only 70 Ukrainian drones were destroyed during the overnight attack, but this information was later updated. 

According to a report from the Russian news agency TASS, published on the morning of September 10, 2024, 72 drones were shot down over the Bryansk region, 20 over the Moscow region, 14 over the Kursk region, 13 over the Tula region and 25 over five other parts of the country. 

“There were no casualties or destruction. Emergency and operational services are working on the ground,” Bryansk Oblast Governor Aleksandr Bogomaz wrote in a Telegram post. 

Following the overnight drone attacks, at least three people were taken to the hospital and a 46-year-old woman was killed, Moscow Oblast Governor Andrei Vorobyov reported in a Telegram message. Vorobyov also reported the death of a nine-year-old child.  

In Ramenskoye, a town near Moscow, drones struck two apartment buildings, causing fires, Vorobyov added. Five nearby residential buildings were evacuated. 

Additionally, airports around Moscow canceled or postponed flights because of the attack. Vnukovo International Airport (VKO) delayed three flights and four arrivals by at least an hour, while Moscow Domodedovo Airport (DME) delayed three flights, ura.ru reported. 

Meanwhile, Russian forces launched an Iskander-M ballistic missile from occupied Crimea, a Kh-31P anti-radar missile from the airspace over the Black Sea, and 46 Shahed attack drones, the Ukrainian Air Force announced on September 10, 2024. 

The new sanctions, introduced by the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC), were announced by the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on September 1, 2024. 

Zelenskyy said the new restrictions will target legal entities and individuals in Russia, as well as those who collaborate with Russia, “who chose to work for evil – for war.” 

According to presidential decree No. 602/2024, Ukraine will target several airports in Russia. This includes Russian civil and cargo airports in Moscow, such as Vnukovo International Airport (VKO) and Moscow Domodedovo Airport (DME). The restrictions will also apply to airports in Khabarovsk, Kursk, Bryansk, Belgorod and 10 other Russian cities. 

Additionally, Ukraine  will prohibit or restrict aircraft from entering its airspace and will not allow Russian-linked aircraft to land in the country.  

As part of the new sanctions, Ukraine said it will restrict trade activities and stop the export of capital. The country will prevent participation in privatizations, leases of state assets, and public procurement, the decree continued.  

These sanctions will apply to 73 transport, aviation freight, and service companies in the Russian Federation, along with 74 individuals from Russia.  

“The task for all representatives of Ukraine is to do everything to ensure that Ukrainian sanctions are synchronized with world sanctions,” Zelenskyy said.  

Unconfirmed footage depicts a fire on the road atop the dam. The extent of the structural damage is difficult to estimate. Another video shows a cruise missile striking the surface of the reservoir.

The 288-meter (945-feet) long dam holds a volume of up to 3.7 cubic kilometers (0.89 cubic miles) of water.

“If the dam were to collapse, a significant portion of Kyiv would be flooded,” former Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine Tymofiy Mylovanov commented on X.

The attack on the dam took place amid a larger Russian strike in which more than 200 missiles and drones had been launched, according to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

“Overnight, Russia attacked Ukrainian cities again. Hundreds of missiles and drones against civilian population in Ukraine,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov commented on X. “Ukraine is preparing its own answers. Weapons of our own, Ukrainian production.”

The Ukrainian authorities unveiled a new so-called long-range ‘drone missile’ called Palyanytsia on August 24, 2024. The weapon is designed domestically “to destroy the enemy’s offensive potential” by targeting air bases housing bombers used to attack Ukrainian cities.  

The first successful use of the new weapon was confirmed by Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during Ukraine’s Independence Day speech on August 24, 2024. 

“This is our new method of retaliation against the aggressor. The enemy has been defeated”, Zelenskyy said during his speech. “It will be challenging for Russia, and it will be even more difficult to say exactly what [missile or drone] struck.” 

The next day, on August 25, 2024, Zelenskyy shared a video on X providing more information about Palyanytsia, claiming that since the beginning of its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, “Russia has launched about 10,000 missiles of various types and more than 33,000 glide bombs at Ukraine.” 

“Stopping attacks on our cities can be achieved by targeting the carriers of this weaponry—Russian aircraft stationed at military airfields,” Zelenskyy said.  

Palyanytsia [named after a popular Ukrainian bread – ed. note] was designed domestically “to destroy the enemy’s offensive potential,” the Ukrainian President continued.  

Oleksandr Kamyshin, the country’s minister for Strategic Industries, claimed that the drone-missile is a “completely new class of weapon.”  

The ground-launched system reportedly combines the maneuverability and controls of a drone with the speed and explosive power of a missile. Despite being defined as a “rocket drone” by Ukrainian authorities, it is propelled by a jet engine. It is also claimed to be cheaper than a regular cruise missile. 

Zelenskyy did not provide any more technical information about the weapon, nor did he specify the location where it was deployed. 

Ukraine has recently intensified its attacks on Russian soil, targeting air bases housing bombers used to target Ukrainian cities.  

On August 22, 2024, a fire broke out following a drone strike at the Marinovka Air Base in Russia’s Volgograd region, from which several squadrons of tactical bombers are operating. 

On August 24, 2024, another drone attack on a large Russian ammunition depot took place in the Voronezh region, as reported by the Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense. Despite speculation, it is unclear if it was the Palyanytsia drone. 

According to regional governor Andrei Bocharov, the Russian air defense forces managed to intercept and destroy most of the attacking drones during the night of August 22, 2024. However, at least one drone made it through the defenses, crashing and causing a fire on the airfield premises. 

Satellite imagery from NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System, FIRMS, confirmed the presence of multiple fires at the airfield following the attack.  

Images taken days before the attack show that approximately 30 tactical bombers were stationed at the base. The base is home to the 11th Composite Aviation Regiment, which operates the Sukhoi Su-24. Furthermore, some Sukhoi Su-34 aircraft had been moved from Morozovsk Air Base after drone attacks had damaged it. 

An airspace ban was enforced, causing the nearby Volgograd International Airport (VOG) to suspend all flights. A total of 11 flights were delayed. Operations resumed later in the day as the situation stabilized. 

This incident at Marinovka was part of a larger coordinated effort by Ukraine, as several regions in western Russia were targeted. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the downing of 28 drones across multiple regions, including Rostov, Belgorod, Voronezh, Bryansk, and Kursk.  

A day prior, another attack attributed to Ukraine saw Moscow experienced one of the largest drone attacks in recent history, according to the city’s mayor, Sergei Sobyanin.  

Russian air defense units reportedly intercepted and destroyed 11 drones targeting the capital, with some being taken down over the city of Podolsk, approximately 38 kilometers (24 miles) south of the Kremlin. 

“The layered defense of Moscow against enemy UAVs that was created has allowed us to repel all attacks successfully,” Sobyanin announced on Telegram. “This is one of the largest attempts to attack Moscow using drones ever.” 

Due to the drone threats, some commercial flights were redirected from the city’s three airports: Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky. 

In addition to the attack on Moscow, drone strikes were reported across several other Russian regions. 

The governor of Bryansk, Alexander Bogomaz, reported on Telegram that 23 drones were destroyed over the region located on the Russian-Ukrainian border. 

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, six drones were intercepted over Belgorod, three over Kaluga, and two over the Kursk region. Furthermore, a missile was reportedly brought down in the west of the Rostov region. 

In total, Russian authorities claimed to have destroyed 45 drones overnight. The Ukrainian authorities have not commented on the attacks. 

Moscow has previously experienced drone attacks, with the most notable incident involving a UAV landing on the roof of the Kremlin Senate on the night of May 2 and 3, 2023. Previous attacks usually featured fewer drones and resulted in minimal damage. 

Following deep strikes targeting Russian strategic bomber bases in December 2022, the Russian Ministry of Defense deployed several Pantsir anti-aircraft systems on the roofs of various buildings in Moscow. 

Ukraine’s air force chief, Mykola Oleshchuk, said that Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted and destroyed eight Russian attack drones and five of eight missiles launched overnight. The strikes targeted Kyiv, the Sumy, and Poltava regions. No significant damage or injuries were reported.

Oleshchuk noted the use of two KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) produced in North Korea in the attack.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the ongoing assaults, accusing Russia of “deliberate and targeted terror.” He stated that over 40 missiles, 750 guided bombs, and 200 drones had been used by Russian forces in attacks on Ukraine over the past week.

“Russia always knows where it strikes,” Zelenskyy said in a Telegram post, emphasizing the deliberate nature of the attacks.

Ukraine regularly asked its Western allies to provide more air defense systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, such as the US-made MIM-104 Patriot or the Franco-Italian SAMP/T Aster 30 MAMBA.

The need for recruitment is to address Ukraine’s shortage of trained pilots capable of flying F-16 fighter jets. According to US Senators Richard Blumenthal and Lindsey Graham, Ukraine is looking for ways to strengthen its air capabilities.  

“President Zelensky told us both that he would be looking to supplement his Air Force by establishing a program to enlist retired NATO F-16 fighter pilots,” Blumenthal and Graham said in a joint statement after meeting with the Ukrainian President. “We support this effort. Ukraine is already fielding units of freedom fighters on the ground, and this volunteer force should be replicated in the air.” 

Around 20 Ukrainian airmen are expected to be ready to fly F-16 fighter jets in 2024. They are currently being trained by various Western air forces. The ratio within a fighter squadron is 1.5 pilots per one aircraft on average within the United States Air Force. Based on this proportion, the Ukrainian Air Force would be able to field around 13 F-16 fighters by 2025.

On August 4, 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that his country has received the first batch of US-made F-16 fighter jets, which Kyiv hopes will help defend against Russian forces. Citing a source close to the matter, The Times said that the Netherlands had supplied six jets to Ukraine so far. 

However, Ukraine plans to “not use [the F-16] too close to the Russians” due to the threat of air defenses, a Ukrainian official told the Washington Post on July 28, 2024.  

Storage of the F-16 fighters in Ukraine is also being challenged, with the Russian Air Force intensifying bombing raids on Ukrainian air bases. 

The dramatic footage, which was released on Telegram by pro-Kremlin military blogger Kirill Fedorov on August 4, 2024, shows the jet falling out of the sky with flames coming from one of its engines. 

The clip captures the fighter pilot’s perspective as he ejects from the damaged aircraft and descends to the ground. The video begins high above the clouds, where the pilot’s jet can be seen spiraling out of control.  

The exact aircraft type is unclear, but, according to local media, it appears to be a single-seated Flanker family jet, potentially a Su-27 or Su-35. Both have been widely used by Russian forces in Ukraine.  

As the pilot descends, he films his parachute and survival kit below him, which includes an inflatable raft. At lower altitude, he removes his oxygen mask and speaks to the camera, claiming that the aircraft was “shot down”.  

It is still not clear where and at what time the video was taken. On August 5, 2024, X user Damian Twardosz provided coordinates of the accident and identified the video’s location as a village near Chaplynka in the Russian-occupied Kherson region of southern Ukraine, close to occupied Crimea. This identification has not been officially confirmed.  

“Judging by the calm behavior of the pilot, the plane was shot down deep in the Russian rear,” Anton Gerashchenko, Advisor of the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs commented. 

Speaking in a public address on August 4, 2024, Zelenskyy said that these advanced fighter jets will be integrated with the country’s existing Western-supplied surface-to-air missile systems, including Patriot and NASAMS.

“F-16s are in Ukraine. We did it. I am proud of our guys who are mastering these jets and have already started using them for our country,” Zelenskyy confirmed.

However, Zelenskyy acknowledged that Ukraine still faces challenges, including a shortage of trained pilots and a limited number of F-16s.

“The positive news is that we are expecting additional F-16s and many pilots are currently undergoing training,” Zelenskyy added.

The President emphasized the importance of expanding training programs for both pilots and engineering teams to maximize the effectiveness of the new aircraft.

On social media, Zelenskyy elaborated on the significance of this latest development: “We are entering a new phase for the Ukrainian Air Force with Western combat aviation. From the outset of this war, we have sought to protect our skies from Russian missiles and aircraft. Through countless negotiations, we turned what seemed impossible into reality. F-16s are now a part of our defense strategy. I am grateful to our team and our international partners—Denmark, the Netherlands, and the United States—for their crucial support,” was written in the post.

The deployment of the F-16s marks a significant achievement for Ukraine, but their exact number and the full impact on Ukraine’s air defense capabilities remain uncertain. The Russian military has already targeted potential bases housing these new jets aiming to prevent any strategic Ukraine’s advantage.

Manufactured by Lockheed Martin, the F-16 fighter jets are a major upgrade from Ukraine’s outdated Soviet-era aircraft, which have struggled against Russia’s advanced and numerous fleet. The introduction of the F-16s is expected to significantly boost Ukraine’s combat capabilities and air defense.

First batch of F-16 fighters reportedly handed over to Ukraine

• Defense
• War in Ukraine

ByClement Charpentreau

August 1, 2024

Approximately 80 F-16s from European countries—including the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, and Norway—are scheduled to be delivered to Ukraine. About 20 of these jets are expected to arrive by the end of 2024. Additionally, the US is exploring options to further support Ukrainian pilots by either expanding training programs at an Arizona base or allowing them to train at other U.S. Air Force facilities.

On July 10, 2024, during a NATO summit in Washington, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that the first F-16s would be handed over to Ukraine within “a few days”. 

This promise has seemingly been fulfilled. Bloomberg first reported the aircraft’s arrival, which was later confirmed by the Associated Press. Citing a source close to the matter, The Times said that the Netherlands had supplied six jets to Ukraine. 

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis confirmed the information on X. 

So far, neither the Ukrainian government nor its Western allies have confirmed the delivery of the first tranche of fighters. 

Bolstering Ukraine’s air defenses 

The delivery is part of a broader initiative led by the Netherlands and Denmark, which are spearheading an international coalition to supply Ukraine with US-designed fighter jets. Kyiv has long requested modern Western aircraft to counter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, launched in February 2022. 

Denmark and the Netherlands have each pledged to provide 19 and 24 fighter aircraft, respectively. Norway has also committed to offering 22 F-16 Block 10/15 airframes, while Belgium has pledged to deliver 30 F-16 fighter jets to Kyiv. 

The US will equip at least a dozen F-16 fighter jets with modern missiles and other advanced weaponry before transferring them to Ukraine. These F-16 fighters will be capable of deploying a wide range of bombs and missiles, making them suitable for various mission profiles in Ukraine. 

However, the success of these missions will depend on the training received by the pilots. Initially, the role of the fighters may be limited to defending Kyiv and other large Ukrainian cities from Russia’s cruise missiles, such as the Kalibr and the Kh-22, as well as the Iranian Shahed-136 kamikaze drones. 

The storage and safe operation of the F-16 fighters is also being challenged, with the Russian Air Force intensifying bombing raids on Ukrainian air bases. In an interview with RFE/RL, Ukrainian Air Force Chief of Aviation, General Serhiy Holubtsov, explained that some fighters will remain abroad. 

“There are a certain number of aircraft that will be stored at secure air bases, outside of Ukraine, so that they are not targeted here,” Holubtsov said. “And this will be our reserve in case of need for replacement of faulty planes during routine maintenance.” 

The Ukrainian Air Force also deploys decoy aircraft at its bases to divert fire away from its actual aircraft and help deplete Russian missiles. 

Images and videos were posted on several social media sites, showing the explosion and rising smoke over the eastern Ukrainian city Luhansk, currently occupied by Russian military forces. According to a post on X (formerly Twitter) by LX, air defense shot down three ATACMS missiles above the city. 

The ATACMS (The Army Tactical Missile System) are tactical ballistic missiles or artillery weapons, designed to attack big targets such as airfields, control centers and air defense systems. 

Ukrainian media sources have reported that Russian air defense systems shot down several ATACMS missiles, but nevertheless one managed to strike the Lugansk Higher Military Aviation School. The facility was formerly Ukraine’s flying training school, but since the war began, Russian occupiers have converted it into a military equipment base.  

The occupation authorities immediately declared an attack by the Ukrainian armed forces and confirmed that air defenses had been activated. There has been no response from Ukrainian officials regarding the incident. 

As UNIAN previously reported, 95% of the Luhansk region is occupied, with only 45 people living in the liberated area. According to Artyom Lysohor, Head of the Luhansk Regional State Administration, the majority of the population in the region are elderly people.  

“The situation is difficult,” Lysohor said. “There are 45 people left, which is 5% of Luhansk residents. Even after the death of their neighbors, not everyone is in a hurry to leave. Last week, only four agreed to evacuate. Since Russians have occupied almost the whole region, they can use various weapons to devastate the part of the region that is still liberated.” 

Ukrainian forces have recently increased their use of drones and missiles in targeting Russian military bases.  

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Swedish officials have been in discussions regarding the transfer of Gripen fighters since 2023.    

“For obvious reasons, Sweden was not ready to make any promises then, as the country had finalized its membership in the Alliance. Now the country is in NATO, and my president is talking to the Swedish prime minister again, and our defense ministry is talking to the relevant Swedish authorities. These fighters are as good as F-16s and we are moving in this direction,” Zhovkva said in an interview with the Voice of America (VOA) on July 14, 2024. 

However, Zhovkva noted that Sweden was understandably hesitant to make commitments while finalizing their NATO membership. On July 14, 2024, Ukrainian sources like UNN, Censor.net, Voice of America (VOA), reported that the delivery of Gripen fighter jets had been postponed because Kyiv was first given F-16 aircraft and it would be too challenging to implement two fighter systems at the same time.  

The Saab JAS 39 Gripen is a single engine light fighter aircraft, manufactured by Swedish aerospace and defense company Saab AB. It is powered by a RM12 Engine supplied by Volvo Aero. The Gripen can reach 2,125 km/h and refuel quickly using mobile forward arming and refueling points. 

The Gripen is designed to operate from dispersed airfields, using roads and runways, with minimal support team needed. This feature could be useful for Ukraine since most of its airfields and air bases are vulnerable to Russian attacks. This aircraft is capable of countering current and future threats and can perform various military missions such as air strikes, ground attacks, and reconnaissance missions.  

On March 11, 2024, Swedish JAS-39 Gripen fighters completed their first NATO mission since Sweden became a full-fledged member of the alliance, during which a Russian Tu-134 airliner was detected flying over the Baltic Sea.  

The agreement to provide Ukraine with Gripen jets is a part of a security agreement signed by Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. According to the agreement, Sweden will provide around €6.5 billion to Ukraine during 2024–2026. Military support will include aviation and air defense, armored vehicles, artillery, strengthened maritime, assistance in demining, and unmanned aerial vehicles.

Ukrainian media outlets and organizations, including The Kyiv Independent, Ukrainska Pravda and Apostrophe, have declared that secret data has been gathered from anonymous Ukrainian sources regarding the Russian forces’ attack on Kyiv’s children’s hospital Okhmatdyt on July 8, 2024. 

Following the strike, a Russian pilot from the 22nd Heavy Bomber Aviation Division contacted Ukrainian military intelligence chatbot (Diia) on Telegram, to hand over documents relating to his military unit’s activities, plus photos of command staff. 

The Ukrainska Pravda report claims that the documents include the personal files of Russian officials and private data of 30 military personnel and their families. The photographs show division representatives such as the Russian Air Force Long Range Aviation Command and the Russian Aerospace Forces Command. 

According to sources who have communicated with ‘Information Resistance’, a non-governmental Ukrainian group that aims to counteract Russian disinformation and propaganda, the Russian officer wrote that he was shocked by the attack on the children’s hospital and, like some of his colleagues, did not understand why they were ordered to do so. As a result, he decided to hand the secret information to the Ukrainian side. 

The 22nd Heavy Bomber Aviation Division is based at the Engels Airfield in Russia’s Saratov Oblast, hundreds of kilometers from Ukraine. This division regularly attacks Ukraine with Kh-101 cruise missiles using strategic bombers. 

One such missile attack struck the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital in Kyiv on July 8, 2024, killing two people and wounding 32 others, including eight children. At the time of the attack, there were 627 patients in the hospital. 

Lomdzharia reportedly made the statement on the sidelines of the NATO Summit, which is taking place in Washington DC between July 9-11, 2024. The Ukrainian official refused to provide any additional details about the project or its expected timeframe. 

The only flyable An-225 was entirely destroyed during the combats for Hostomel Airport, near Kyiv, during the early stages of the Russian invasion.  

Another half-built airframe has been in storage since late Soviet times. However, its state of preservation remains unclear, and it is not known whether it would be feasible to bring it up to date with modern technology. 

It is not the first time that the idea of rebuilding or producing the Mriya again has been floated by Ukrainian officials.  

As early as November 2022, CNN reported on the alleged plans to rebuild what used to be the world’s largest aircraft. However, technical challenges aside, it has been estimated that the project would require an investment in the order of hundreds of millions to billions of US dollars. 

The revised list was announced on June 24, 2024, and features Ekaterinburg-based Ural Airlines, one of Russia’s largest airlines, air logistics company Volga-Dnepr, and airport operator Novaport.   

Several top managers and prominent shareholders at the Volga-Dnepr Group have also been included in the list of sanctioned individuals on account of the services the air freight operator provides to the Russian government and war industry. 

The cargo airline was also added to the UK sanctions list on June 13, 2024. 

As of June 2024, the Volga-Dnepr Group operates a fleet of 22 large cargo aircraft, including 12 Antonov An-124 “Ruslan”, five Boeing 747-8F and five IL-76TD-90VD aircraft. 

Ural Airlines has an all-Airbus fleet of 52 aircraft, including one A320 that has been stranded in a field in Siberia since September 2023 after performing an emergency landing. 

Novaport Holding has been sanctioned because some of the airports in its network have dual civilian-military use and have serviced aircraft operating flights to Simferopol International Airport (SIP) in Crimea. Novaport manages 23 airport facilities across Russia. 

While included on the sanctions list, EU member states may freeze any funds belonging to or linked to the designated entities and individuals and forbid engaging in transactions with them or making economic resources available to them. 

Canada and the United States have also recently sanctioned Russian low-cost airline and Aeroflot subsidiary Pobeda. 

On June 6, 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the transfer of Dassault Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine by the end of 2024.

This came as a surprise since a week prior, Sweden suspended its plan to sell Gripen C/Ds to Ukraine in order to prioritize the introduction of the F16. 

“Our partners emphasize that the simultaneous introduction of two air combat systems is very complex and that it is now necessary to focus on the entry into service of the F-16 within the Ukrainian Air Force,” Pål Jonson, the Swedish Minister of Defense, explained at the time.  

Yet, when asked about France’s decision to supply Ukraine with an additional fighter model alongside the F-16, the US Secretary of Defense expressed his approval. 

“We’re working hard to get Ukraine an F-16 capability this summer, and […] I’m optimistic that that will happen,” Austin stated. “And I also welcome France’s contribution because every bit helps.” 

Austin underscored the importance of ensuring multiple complex systems are sustainable and interoperable for effective use in Ukraine.  

“I’m sure that, you know, once the training is complete, and once all of the coordination has been done, we’ll see some good results, but every little bit helps,” the US defense secretary concluded. 

The Mirage 2000 is a fighter jet developed by Dassault Aviation in the 1970s. The 2000-5 is an air superiority variant of the aircraft.

The French Air and Space Force fighters, which are to be transferred to Ukraine, are well-known within NATO operations. 

The ones operated by the 1/2 Cigognes squadron are regularly deployed as part of the Baltic Air Policing mission to ensure the protection of the airspace of the three Baltic states, which have no airborne capability of their own. A few more airframes are flown by the 3/11 Corse squadron, responsible for airspace surveillance at Air Base 188 Djibouti. 

The number of Mirage jets being transferred has not been specified. However, some have questioned the relevance of France sending fighter jets to Ukraine. Indeed, France only has 26 Mirage 2000-5s at its disposal.  

Other countries, such as Greece and Qatar, operate the same variant of the fighter jet. But Greece has refused to part with its aerial combat capabilities, while Qatar appears more inclined to sell its fighters second-hand, with India recently voicing its interest. 

The information was first reported by InfoBae, which claims that Argentine President Javier Milei has approved a plan crafted by Defense Minister Luis Petri and Foreign Minister Diana Mondino to deliver the five aircraft to support Ukraine’s efforts in its ongoing war against Russia. 

Mondino reportedly discussed the project with her French counterpart, Stéphane Séjourné, and US President Joe Biden’s administration. During these discussions, Argentina sought support to refurbish the aircraft and receive military equipment in exchange. 

However, the Argentinian defense publication Zona Militar, citing military sources, denied the existence of such a project. They have categorically denied any plan by the current Argentine government to transfer these combat aircraft to another country when the Argentine Naval Aviation seeks to reinforce its diminished capabilities. 

The strange saga of Argentina’s Super Etendard fighters 

The Dassault-Breguet Super Étendard is a French carrier-based strike fighter aircraft developed in the 1970s. The aircraft is powered by a single SNECMA ATAR 8K50 turbojet engine. Upgraded from the original Super Étendard, the Modernisé version developed in the late 1980s features enhanced avionics and controls, and a new radar system.  

In July 1979, Argentina ordered 14 Super-Étendard fighters to arm its aircraft carrier 25 de Mayo. Known for its role in anti-ship and ground-attack missions, the aircraft gained notable combat experience during conflicts such as the 1982 Falklands War that opposed Argentina to the United Kingdom.  

In January 2018, during then-President Macri’s visit to France, the sale of five retired Dassault-Breguet Super Etendard Modernisés from the French Navy was announced. The €12 million contract included eight ATAR 8K50 engines, spare parts, and a training simulator. The five aircraft were eventually delivered in 2020. 

However, since the Falklands War, the UK has imposed an arms embargo on Argentina, preventing the delivery of cartridges for the MK6 ejection seats manufactured by the British group Martin Baker. After three years, Argentina abandoned efforts to circumvent the sanctions. 

The Argentine military had been considering different options to upgrade its aging combat aircraft fleet, which currently consists of approximately 24 outdated A-4AR Fightinghawk light attack jets. Procurement plans were made with France, Russia, and China, but none of these materialized.  

Eventually, Argentina successfully acquired 24 F-16 fighter jets from Denmark on March 26, 2024, with the support of the United States. 

“On June 8, 2024, a Su-57 multi-role fighter of the aggressor state was hit on the territory of the Akhtubinsk airfield in the Astrakhan region of the Russian Federation, located 589 kilometers [about 365 miles] from the combat line,” the GUR said in a press release, published along with with two satellite images allegedly showing damages on the parked aircraft.  

The Russian Defense Ministry is yet to comment. 

Mystery around Su-57 involvement in Ukraine

The Su-57, designated by NATO as “Felon,” is a fifth-generation multirole fighter developed by Sukhoi, part of United Aircraft Corporation. It is designed with passive stealth characteristics, features internal payload bays, and can achieve speeds over Mach 2. The Su-57 first flew in 2010 and was poised to compete with other fifth-generation fighter jets, such as the US-made Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor and the Chinese Chengdu J-20.  

The exact number of Su-57s operational with the Russian Aerospace Forces is unclear, with some sources estimating the number to be between 14 and 22 aircraft. A total of 76 fighters have been ordered to date. 

In May 2022, an anonymous insider interviewed by state news agency TASS said the aircraft had allegedly been involved in the war for most of its duration. It has been employed to launch Kh-59 and Kh-69 cruise missiles, some of which were reportedly used to destroy the Trypilska thermal power plant in April 2024. 

The contract was confirmed during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to France for the ceremonies commemorating the 80th anniversary of the Allied Landings in Normandy.

This purchase comes after successfully deploying an initial Thales air defense system in Ukraine in 2023, leading the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense to acquire a second unit to strengthen its defense capabilities.

“This second air defense system will strengthen the protection of Ukrainian territory, by making it possible to detect existing threats as early as possible,” Hervé Dammann, Managing Director Assistant, Land and Air Systems. “Thales is proud to put its expertise at the service of protecting Ukraine.”

The new air defense system incorporates Thales’ ControlMaster 200, which comprises the Ground Master 200 air surveillance radar, a radio communications network, the ControlView command and control center, and a portable weapon allocation terminal. This system is capable of detecting and tracking both low and high altitude targets in diverse environments, offering comprehensive airspace protection.

The Ground Master 200 (GM200) multi-mission medium-range radar system is designed to detect low to high-altitude air targets, including missiles, artillery rounds, or drones. With a surveillance span of 250 kilometers (155 miles), the GM200 can effectively target threats within a 100-kilometer (62-mile) range when integrated with an air defense system like the Aster 30 SAMP/T (also known as MAMBA).

“As of tomorrow, we will launch a pilot training and transfer program for these aircraft with the aim [of completing their training] by the end of the year,” Macron explained, adding that 4,500 Ukrainian infantry soldiers would also be trained and equipped by France.

“In no case are we at war with Russia and its people,” Macron added, emphasizing that the support is designed to help Ukraine protect its territory and airspace. The exact number of aircraft being transferred or their origin was not disclosed.

The Mirage 2000 is a fighter jet developed by Dassault Aviation in the 1970s. The 2000-5 is an air superiority variant of the aircraft.

Two French squadrons [1/2 Cigognes, 3/11 Corse – ed. note] are still operating the Mirage 2000-5, which should eventually be phased out and replaced by Rafale fighters. These aircraft are regularly deployed to the Baltic states as part of the NATO Baltic Air Policing mission, meant to protect the three countries from aerial incursions and provide support in case of air emergencies since these nations have no airborne capability of their own.   

In his D-Day address, Macron also reemphasized that Ukraine has the right to strike back at Russian positions from which attacks are launched.

“If we say to the Ukrainians: ‘you cannot neutralize these Russian capabilities,’ then we tell them you can no longer defend yourself,” the French president explained.

Doubt had long hovered over France’s transfer of Mirage 2000s to Ukraine. On March 22, 2023, the daily newspaper Le Figaro stated that around 30 Ukrainian air crewmembers were receiving accelerated training to operate Mirage 2000s. However, the French Ministry of Armed Forces denied the claims.

On September 3, 2023, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Macron agreed to train Ukrainian pilots in France. Pilots chosen to fly the F-16 will travel to France and receive advanced training flying the Alpha Jet jet trainer. Advanced training is the last stage before receiving basic training on the F-16, also known as B-Course.

The aircraft are part of Sweden’s 16th military aid package, the most substantial to date, valued at SEK 13.3 billion (€1.16 billion). 

“Ukraine’s capability to identify and engage targets at long range will be strengthened,” the Swedish Ministry of Defense commented. “The package will also include a holistic solution that involves training, technical equipment and methodological support for air surveillance and command and control.” 

The Saab ASC 890 is a variant of the Saab 340 AEW, based on the Saab 340 regional turboprop airliner.  

This aircraft is equipped with the Erieye airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) system, featuring an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar mounted atop the fuselage, has a range exceeding 550 kilometers (342 miles) and can effectively track both airborne and naval targets. 

In June 2022, the Swedish Air Force announced plans to replace its two Saab 340 AEW aircraft with two Global 6000 GlobalEye aircraft.  

In July 2023, Saab received the first of these Bombardier Global 6000 jets, equipped with an advanced Airborne Early Warning and Control solution for Sweden. The Swedish GlobalEye fleet is expected to be operational by 2027. 

The same month, Poland completed the acquisition of two second-hand Saab 340 radar reconnaissance aircraft from the United Arab Emirates and Saab. Poland officially received the first Saab 340 aircraft at an airbase in Gdynia on March 4, 2024. 

The change of strategy was announced during a joint press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on May 28, 2024, during Macron’s state visit to Germany 

“We must allow [the Ukrainians] to neutralize the military sites from which the missiles are fired, basically, the military sites from which Ukraine is attacked,” Macron said, as reported by Le Monde. “But we must not allow other targets in Russia and obviously civilian capabilities to be hit.” 

France and the United Kingdom supplied Ukraine with SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow cruise missiles during the summer of 2023. The British-French weapon was developed in the 1990s by Matra and British Aerospace and is now manufactured by the European missile maker MBDA.  

The SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow cruise missile has a maximum range of 560 kilometers (350 miles), but the export models delivered are modified to operate at a reduced range of 250 kilometers (155 miles).  

The adjustment was in line with the assurances previously provided to the United Kingdom and France by Ukrainian officials, who have affirmed that the missiles would not be employed to target deep into Russian territory and would be used exclusively for operations within Ukraine’s sovereign territory. 

Macron justified the removal of this limitation by noting changes in Russian tactics, highlighting that Moscow is now bombing Kharkiv and its surroundings from its territory rather than from occupied areas. 

So far, Ukraine has relied on its own capabilities to attack targets in Russia. On April 2, 2024, a strike was carried out on a factory complex in Alabuga, Tatarstan, situated more than 1,200 kilometers (745 miles) away from Ukrainian soil.  

To do so, the Ukrainian military converted an Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat ultralight aircraft to be remotely controlled and fitted with an explosive charge. The aircraft has a range of about 1,100 km (684 miles), which exceeds the distance from Eastern Ukraine to the Alabuga SEZ. It is unclear where the aircraft was launched from and whether it was modified to increase its range. 

In a public announcement posted on April 20, 2024, the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense shared some images of the disassembled jet aircraft during the transfer process. 

This aircraft in particular was no longer in service with the Lithuanian armed forces, which had been using it in the past for training purposes.

Ukraine has long been a L-39 operator. Before the Russian large scale invasion it operated a fleet of more than 40 aircraft of this type, although some have been lost during the conflict.

Although its design dates back to the 1960s, the L-39 was produced until the 1990s in many iterative versions. Its latest incarnation, called L-39NG, was presented by Czech aircraft maker Aero Vodochody at the 2014 Farnborough Air Show and had its first flight in 2018. 

The version now supplied by Lithuania, the L-39ZA was developed in the 1970s and is capable of carrying a variety of weapons in its outer pylons, in addition to being fitted with an internal cannon.

This move is part of Lithuania’s ongoing military support program to help Ukraine defend itself against the Russian invasion.

Rescue teams evacuated two crew members from the crash site. A third crew member was reported deceased, and the fourth was missing. 

Footage on social media captures the bomber in a flat spin toward the ground with a noticeable fire near its tail. 

The Tupolev Tu-22M is a strategic bomber developed during the Soviet era. It has been followed by several modernized versions, including the Tu-22M3 ‘Backfire’. This variant can reach speeds above 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles) per hour and deliver more than 12 tons of ordnance. Four crew members are required to operate it. 

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, a “technical malfunction” was the likely cause of the crash, with no ammunition being on board at the time of the incident. However, Ukrainian sources have offered an alternative narrative, alleging that the aircraft was downed after it fired Kh-22 cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities. 

“This is the first strategic aircraft that Ukraine managed to destroy during a flight,” a source in the Ukrainian Defense Forces told RBC Ukraine. “It carried out strikes on Ukraine.” 

Another anonymous source told Novoe Vremia that the Ukrainian armed forces shot down the strategic bomber with a Soviet-era S-200 air defense system, adding that a similar method was used to bring down a Beriev A-50 above the Sea of Azov on January 14, 2024.  

Russian authorities currently occupying the area have closed a road connecting Dzhankoy with the village of Pobiedne. This road passes alongside the military airfield. It is still unclear to what extent the reported explosions affected the base. 

The Dzhankoy airfield houses the 39th Helicopter Regiment of the Russian Air Force 27th Mixed Aviation Division. This regiment operates various Russian helicopters, including the Ka-52 Alligator, Mi-8, Mi-28N, and Mi-35M. 

In a note published on August 17, 2022, the British Defence Intelligence defined Dzhankoy as “a key road and rail junction that plays an important role in supplying Russia’s operations in southern Ukraine”. 

Reports from the Oryx website, which documents visually confirmed losses, claimed the loss of at least 136 Russian helicopters since the onset of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. 

The information was first reported by the Argentinian website Zona Militar and later confirmed by Norwegian online newspaper Nettavisen. 

While Norway has 22 F-16 Block 10/15 airframes ready for transfer to Ukraine, not all of them are believed to be in fully operational condition, with some likely to be cannibalized to provide spare parts.  

In December 2020, the Texas-based private military contractor Draken announced that it had acquired 12 of the former RNoAF F-16s to help provide training to the company’s customers. However, the deal seemingly fell through. Therefore, Nettavisen is speculating that at least 12 F-16 fighters transferred to Ukraine are combat-capable.  

In August 2023, Denmark and the Netherlands announced the delivery of their respective F-16 fleets to Ukraine. Zona Militar reported that the two countries would provide 19 and 24 fighters respectively. 

A few days later, it was revealed that Norway would follow suit. In late 2023, it transferred two F-16 trainers to Denmark from where Ukrainian pilots are to practice combat missions. 

Norway’s transition to the F-35 Lightning II as the mainstay of its fighter fleet is well underway. With 24 F-35s already delivered and 10 in use for pilot training in the United States, the F-35s are poised to replace the F-16s entirely. 

This coal and gas-fueled power plant was capable of producing 1,800 megawatt hours, supplying more than half of the electricity used by the Ukrainian capital city. Its operator, Centrenergo, said the facility was completely destroyed. 

The attack that took place on April 11, 2024, involved a combination of missile and drone attacks. Moscow claimed that the attack was retaliation for alleged Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy installations. The Russian Defense Ministry boasted of “massive strikes”, deploying over forty missiles and drones aimed at crippling Ukrainian oil, gas, and electricity facilities. 

The Russian Ministry of Defense said in a statement: “The strikes disrupted the work of the Ukrainian military industry enterprises, thwarted the transfer of reserves to combat zones, and made it difficult to supply fuel to the AFU troops and military units.” 

“We believe that in this way we have an impact on Ukraine’s military-industrial complex,” Russian President Vladimir Putin declared. 

The Ukrainian Air Force reported a barrage of 82 missiles and Iranian-designed Shahed-type kamikaze drones being launched against Ukraine. Various types of missiles were deployed during the mission, including Kh-101 and Kh-555 air-launched cruise missiles, Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles, Kh-59 air-launched standoff missiles, and missiles from S-300 air defense systems repurposed as surface-to-surface weapons.  

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba condemned the attack, emphasizing Ukraine’s vulnerability to ballistic strikes and calling for more Patriot air defense systems to be supplied. In a press briefing, Illia Yevlash, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, stated that Ukraine requires 25 Patriot systems to develop a robust air defense system. The system should also include short, medium and long-range air defense capabilities, complemented by fighter jets for better support. 

A strike was carried out on a factory complex in Alabuga, Tatarstan, which is situated more than 1,200 kilometers (745 miles) away from Ukrainian soil. An oil refinery complex located outside Nizhnekamsk in Tatarstan was also targeted. Preliminary reports indicate that the attacks resulted in casualties. 

Eyewitnesses in the area reported explosions in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone at around 6:00 local time. The strike reportedly hit a plant and a hostel suspected to be associated with the assembly of Shahed-136 suicide drones.  

In July 2023, a factory was established in Alabuga to manufacture the suicide drone made in Iran, which Russia had previously imported for use in its invasion of Ukraine. Shahed-136 drones have been employed by Russian forces, along with domestically manufactured ones, as well as cruise missiles and different types of artillery, to hit targets on the frontlines and deep within Ukraine, including civilian infrastructure. 

This marks one of the deepest drone strikes conducted by Ukrainian forces during the conflict. Videos of the attack shared on social media suggest that the Ukrainian forces have repurposed general aviation aircraft such as a Cessna 152 to carry out these long-distance attacks.  

Footage shows the helicopter being struck by an object with an explosion ensuing. Other images that appeared on social media show the alleged wreckage of the helicopter in the aftermath of the attack, totally carbonized. 

Drone attacks have become a daily occurrence in the war between Russia and Ukraine, however, this attack has caught the attention of military and political analysts, since it has taken place in a territory with the potential to become another flashpoint of this conflict. 

While the authorship of the attack remains unknown, the Moldovan government has already denied having anything to do with it and has labelled it as a provocation. Moldova affirms, in fact, that the helicopter in question had been out of service for a long time. 

This is in line with what some analysts pointed out on social media, noting that images from before the attack showed the helicopter in an apparent state of disrepair already before the explosion took place. Some voices have raised the possibility that the attack may have been staged in order to increase political tensions at a time when the Moldovan government is trying to curtail Russian influence in the country. 

In recent weeks tension has escalated between Russia and Moldova, with the latter accusing the former of planning destabilizing acts on the wake of the country’s EU accession candidacy.  

In February 2024, Transnistrian separatists requested Russia, which keeps troops in the territory, for “protection”. This was followed, a few days later, by Russia defying Moldovan sovereignty by opening polling stations in the territory.

The incident occurred near Trudovaya Armeniya, a village in the Krasnodar region of the Russian Federation, approximately 205 kilometers from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled territory.

The Beriev A-50, which is built on the framework of the Ilyushin Il-76 transport plane, is equipped with an Airborne Warning and Control System or AWACS rotodome, making it an essential component of the Russian airborne command and control capabilities. It is often considered Russia’s counterpart to NATO’s Boeing E-3 Sentry.

The Ukrainian General Mykola Oleshchouk confirmed the incident through his Telegram account.

On January 15, 2024, the Ukrainian General Staff had already announced that it had shot down one A-50, as well as a command Ilyushin Il-22. The 2024 World Air Forces directory shows that the Russian Air Force has a fleet of 14 A-50 aircraft, making these losses strategically significant.

Speaking on the radio channel RTL on February 22, 2024, Lecornu expressed the gravity of the situation, highlighting Russia’s provocative actions. 

“Russia has attempted to disrupt several of our patrols,” the minister said. “A month ago, to give you a very concrete example, a Russian air traffic control system threatened to shoot down French planes in the Black Sea while we were in a free international zone where we were patrolling.”  

The French General Staff of the Armed Forces further detailed the situation during a press briefing at the Ministry of the Armed Forces. 

“This interaction took place in mid-November [of 2023],” explained Colonel Pierre Gaudillère, spokesperson for the General Staff of the Armed Forces, as quoted by BFM TV. “It was an AWACS [Airborne Warning and Control System – ed. note] on a situation assessment mission in international waters above the Black Sea.” 

“Russia is pushing the limits of aggression” 

Lecornu described Moscow’s recent posture as “particularly aggressive,” reminiscent of the behavior of the former Soviet Union during the Cold War. “Russia is pushing the limits of aggression,” he concluded. 

This is not the first time a NATO aircraft has been threatened by Russian forces while on a mission in the region since the invasion of Ukraine began. 

On September 29, 2022, a Russian Su-27 fighter fired a missile near a British Royal Air Force Boeing RC-135 Rivet Joint observation aircraft. While it was initially accepted that the near catastrophe was due to a “technical malfunction,” later evidence suggested that two missiles were fired and that the Russian pilot was trying to bring down the British aircraft. 

However, despite committing to providing up to €3 billion in additional military aid in 2024, France continues to refuse to supply fighter jets to Ukraine in the near future.

According to Le Monde, France argues that Ukraine lacks the capability to operate several new fighter models and should prioritize a unified and streamlined approach centered on the F-16 rather than dispersing resources across multiple aircraft types. 

The French Air and Space Force is involved in the F-16 international coalition led by Denmark and the Netherlands. Although the French Air and Space Force has never employed US-made F-16 fighter jets, it possesses expertise in NATO standard training and procedures.

On September 3, 2023, Zelenskyy and Macron reported that they had reached a deal to train Ukrainian pilots in France. Weeks before, General James Hecker, commander of US Air Forces in Europe, US Air Forces Africa, and NATO Allied Command, hinted that Ukrainian pilots selected to operate the F-16 would “go down to France and fly in the Alpha Jet for a little bit.”

In addition to pledges from the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, and Norway to provide F-16s, Ukraine’s military leadership has also been seeking Dassault Mirage 2000D fighter-bombers.

The Mirage 2000D (Diversified) variant is an upgraded twin-seat iteration of the multirole fighter jet designed by Dassault Aviation during the 1970s. Derived from the Mirage 2000N (Nuclear), which served as the principal nuclear strike platform for the French Air Force until 2018 [replaced in this capacity by the Rafale – ed. note], the Mirage 2000D is tailored for extended-range precision strikes employing conventional armaments.

The fleet managed by the French Air and Space Force is currently undergoing a modernization initiative aimed at enhancing avionics and enabling the use of a new cannon pod and MICA air-to-air missiles. The initial batch of aircraft was delivered in 2021, with deliveries initially slated until 2025.

However, in January 2023, French President Emmanuel Macron disclosed that the forthcoming Military Planning Law (LPM) for 2024-2030 would end in the complete transition of the fighter fleet of the French Air and Space Force to “all Rafale,” indicating the retirement of all Mirage 2000. The LPM drafted in April 2023 unveiled a decrease in refurbished aircraft from 55 to 48.

Sweden waits for full NATO membership before considering delivering Saab Gripen fighters

This difference in assessment has caused frustration in Kyiv. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, expressed this sentiment in an interview published on February 16, 2024, with the French daily Libération. 

“We expect France to provide us with aviation,” Budanov said. “The French government, if it wished, could provide greater assistance.”

Ukrainian officials have also shown interest in the Swedish-made Saab JAS 39 Gripen fighter, marketed as a robust aircraft that can operate and be maintained with a reduced logistical footprint.

Unlike France, Sweden seems more open to the idea, with Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson telling the Kyiv Independent that it would consider a Gripen delivery once the Nordic country becomes a full NATO member.

“Ukraine needs fourth-generation and fifth-generation fighter aircraft. If we, one way or another, can help you, we are open to that,” Jonson said.

According to Serhiy Popko, the Head of Kyiv’s military administration, Russia fired Iranian-made Shahed-type drones from the occupied Crimea overnight on February 10, 2024. Multiple reports indicated Russia’s drone activity over the regions of Kyiv, Kherson, Odesa, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, and Mykolaiv.

“Overnight, units of anti-aircraft missile forces, mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine, electronic warfare equipment were involved in repelling the air attack. As a result of combat operations, 40 enemy Shaheds were destroyed,” the Ukrainian Air Force shared the details of a drone attack in a post on Telegram.

Meanwhile, 26 more Russia-launched drones were reportedly downed over several southern regions, chiefly over the Mykolaiv region near the Black Sea.

According to preliminary information, the Ukrainian air defense systems were engaged for more than five hours, and the skies over the country’s capital were declared clear before 4 a.m. (0200 GMT) on February 11.

While there no casualties nor destruction in or near Kyiv and the central Cherkasy region were reported, falling debris from a downed drone and the blast wave damaged residential buildings and a gas pipeline in the Mykolaiv region near the Black Sea.

“The priority for the enemy was again the coastal strip of infrastructure and agro-industrial facilities,” the Ukrainian military wrote.

At least one civilian was injured in the southern region of Dnipro, the military confirmed.

Dutch government halts F-16 sale talks with Draken to deliver to Ukraine

• Defense
• War in Ukraine

ByClement Charpentreau

February 6, 2024

Before the recent attack, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited several drone production facilities in the Volga River region of Udmurtia. The minister said that the production of military drones has significantly increased over the past year, though he also admitted there were still some technical issues that needed fixing, as per the state-owned news agency TASS report.

Russian Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik drone production expected to begin in H2 2024

• Defense

ByClement Charpentreau

January 31, 2024

Both parties have agreed that the sale and delivery of these aircraft will no longer proceed, as reported by Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren and State Secretary Christophe van der Maat. 

Draken International is one of the leading private military contractors, which offers tactical aviation services to air forces, mainly in the form of airborne adversary support or “red air” by simulating the enemy in aerial combat. The contractor was among the seven companies that the Pentagon awarded $6.4 billion worth of contracts in October 2019 to provide realistic training to the US Air Force, as the latter struggled to generate training capacity internally.  

In 2012, discussions began between the Netherlands and Draken International to sell 12 F-16s aimed at strengthening the contractor’s fleet with fourth-generation fighters to enable the company to participate actively in competitive orders and tenders. However, the proposed sale did not take place, leading to a revised offer from the Netherlands to sell six F-16s to Draken. This offer is now off the table. 

Instead, the Netherlands will allocate the six aircraft initially earmarked for potential sale to Ukraine, adding to the 18 Dutch F-16s already scheduled for delivery. The European F-16 Training Centre (EFTC) at the 86th Air Base near Fetești, Romania, is scheduled to receive the 18 aircraft.  

“The Netherlands Ministry of Defense is readying 6 additional F-16 fighter aircraft for delivery to Ukraine,” Ollongren said. “This brings the total number to 24 F-16s. Ukraine’s aerial superiority is essential for countering Russian aggression.”

The facility will train Romanian pilots as well as those from allied and partner states, including Ukraine. Lockheed Martin, the fighter jet manufacturer, will provide technical support through its flight instructors and technical personnel. Five Dutch F-16s have already been delivered to the center. 

The F-16 is slowly being phased out of the Royal Netherlands Air Force fleet and will no longer operate past October 2024, progressively replaced by the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter.  

The Netherlands, along with Denmark, is leading an international coalition to supply Ukraine with US-designed F-16 fighter jets. 

The ongoing medevac operation takes part within the framework of the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, which makes it possible for wounded personnel to be evacuated from Ukraine to hospitals throughout Europe, where patients can receive medical treatment.  

The flights are also supported by the Norwegian Armed Forces and Directorate of Health, with which SAS has a long-standing agreement. On February 2, 2024, it was extended for an additional nine months, until November 2024.  

SAS aircraft have participated in medevac and emergency evacuation operations in the past, such as during the 2004 Southeast Asia Tsunami and the conflict in Afghanistan. 

On February 1, 2024, SAS conducted its 100th medevac mission connected to the war in Ukraine. Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, more than 2,000 patients and their relatives have been flown by SAS aircraft from an evacuation center in Poland. 

The aircraft involved in this operation, a Boeing 737-700 with registration LN-RPJ, happens to be the last of the type operating with the Scandinavian airline. SAS retired the last B737 in commercial service in November 2023. 

The warning, which was posted on February 2, 2024, on PANSA’s website, is valid for the period from February 5 (06.00 UTC) to May 5, 2024 (06.00 UTC) and it is due to concerns about an increasingly threatening security situation in the east of the country. 

NOTAM N0608/2024 states that “unplanned military activity related to ensuring state security can be expected within the area”. 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to an aggravation of long-simmering tensions between the West and Russia and its ally Belarus. This has resulted in an increased level of alert along NATO’s eastern flank. 

A number of incidents have taken place in Polish airspace over the last two years in connection with the war in Ukraine. The most recent, which took place in December 2023, saw a Russian missile enter Polish airspace on its way towards attacking a target in Ukraine. 

The NOTAM adds to several warnings issued in recent weeks by several NATO countries, including the German, Swedish and Danish militaries, regarding an increasing probability that Russia may attempt to probe the alliance’s defenses. 

The information was reported by Andrii Kovalev, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff on national television, as per Ukrinform.  

The aircraft, valued at over €45 million, was confirmed to be the latest casualty in the ongoing conflict. 

A pricey start to the year for Russian aviation 

The downing of the Su-34 follows a series of recent events where Ukrainian forces successfully targeted Russian aircraft. 

On January 14, 2024, the Ukrainian Armed Forces affirmed that they successfully shot down a Beriev A-50 and inflicted substantial damage on an Ilyushin Il-22, both critical Russian airborne command and control platforms, above the Sea of Azov.  

On January 24, 2024, a Russian Ilyushin Il-76 military transport aircraft crashed near the village of Yablonovo, Belgorod Oblast, approximately 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the Ukrainian border. 

In late May 2023, Ukraine requested Taurus cruise missiles from the German government. However, the prospect has since become the focal point of intense political debate in Germany.  

In August 2023, Yegor Chernev, Head of the Ukrainian Parliament delegation to the NATO Assembly, disclosed that he had received information from his German counterparts regarding an apparent positive consensus among the main parliamentary factions of the Bundestag.  

Yet a motion on the delivery, put forth by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) parliamentary group on January 17, 2024, was rejected by a majority vote. The bill received support from 178 votes, and faced opposition from 485 members, with three abstaining. 

Despite calls from various political figures urging Chancellor Olaf Scholz to approve the missile delivery, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), who advocated sending the missiles to Kyiv, voted against the motion. They justified their refusal by the fact that the CDU/CSU had linked the motion on the delivery to a debate on the report by the military commissioner regarding the state of the Bundeswehr, the German Armed Forces. 

There are also concerns within the German government, which holds the final decision on this delivery, that the cruise missiles might be used to target the Kerch Bridge — vital to transport Russian military logistics to Crimea and on the southern front. The potential destruction of this bridge is considered one of Vladimir Putin’s red lines. According to reports, Scholz fears the missiles could be employed for this purpose. 

What is the Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missile and why is it important for Ukraine? 

The Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missile, a product of collaboration between MBDA Deutschland and Saab Bofors Dynamics, boasts stealth characteristics and a range exceeding 500 kilometers (310 miles). Powered by a turbofan engine, it can attain speeds ranging from Mach 0.8 to 0.9, and it is compatible with various aircraft, including the Tornado, JAS 39 Gripen, F/A-18 Hornet, and F-15E Strike Eagle. 

One of its notable features is its dual explosive charges. The missile is equipped with an initial hollow charge designed for penetrating concrete or armor. Additionally, a second charge, strategically placed in a ‘penetrator’ and programmed to detonate later, facilitates precise targeting. This allows for pinpoint accuracy, enabling strikes on specific locations such as a particular floor or the pillar of a bridge after penetrating the deck. 

This dual-explosive warhead is similar to the British-French SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow cruise missile, also produced by the European missile maker MBDA. Both France and the UK supplied Ukraine with the latter missile during the summer of 2023, and France recently announced a new delivery batch in January 2024. 

The key advantage of the Taurus over the SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow lies in its sophisticated technology for managing the double explosive charge in its warhead. Unlike its counterpart which relies on timed secondary explosions, the Taurus features a layer counting and void detection system, ensuring unparalleled accuracy in its strikes. 

The SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow cruise missile is a British-French weapon developed in the 1990s by Matra and British Aerospace and is now manufactured by the European missile maker MBDA. This weapon can strike targets at a radius of up to 560 kilometers (350 miles).   

Both France and the United Kingdom supplied Ukraine with these cruise missiles during the summer of 2023. They have since been used to target several strategic targets, including the Chonhar bridge that connects Crimea with Russian-held parts of the southern Kherson region, and the Sevastopol port, damaging several warships. 

France will also deliver “hundreds” of AASM or HAMMER systems, a modular air-ground armament developed by Safran Electronics & Defense that can transform conventional bombs ranging from 250 to 1,000 kilograms (551 to 2,205 pounds) into guided projectiles with a range of up to 70 kilometers (about 43 miles). 

Additionally, Macron disclosed that France is in the final stages of negotiating a security agreement with Ukraine. This decision follows a similar agreement on security cooperation signed between Ukraine and the United Kingdom on January 12, 2024.  

Spanning over 10 years, the UK-Ukraine agreement includes comprehensive assistance for the protection and restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, active deterrence against potential military escalation or aggression by the Russian Federation, and support for Ukraine’s future integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions. This support includes endorsing Ukraine’s reform plans and enhancing interoperability with NATO. 

New Russian strikes on Ukraine overnight 

The Ukrainian Air Force reported that it had intercepted 19 Iranian-made Shahed-136 kamikaze drones launched by Russia overnight on January 17, 2024. The anti-aircraft defense systems were activated in various regions, including Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kirovohrad, as communicated on Telegram.  

In Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city situated in the northeast near the border with Russia, a Russian S-300 missile strike resulted in one fatality and 17 injuries according to the morning report by Volodymyr Tymochko, the police chief of the region. 

In a message shared via Telegram on January 14, 2024, Oleshchuk acknowledged the challenge of mastering new Western aircraft types but expressed confidence in the process. 

“Of course, we will not be able to immediately abandon the operation of Soviet aircraft,” the Air Chief of Staff explained. “Alongside the F-16, the MiG-29 will operate in the sky. The combat capabilities of the Su-24M bombers may be strengthened by the Mirage-2000D, and the Su-25 attack aircraft by the A-10 Thunderbolt II.” 

Though Ukraine’s interest in the Mirage 2000 fighter has been discussed on several occasions since the beginning of Russia’s invasion, it is the first time that the 2000D, a variant still operated by the French Air Force to this day, has been designated.   

Previous speculation surrounded the supply of either outdated Mirage 2000C fighters that France phased out in June 2022, or 12 Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets, an air superiority variant of the aircraft, from Qatar.  

However, since then, the Qatari 2000-5 fighters have caught the interest of the Indonesian authorities, which are seeking to acquire an interim fleet while waiting for their new Rafale jets to be delivered.  

Two French squadrons [1/2 Cigognes, 3/11 Corse – ed. note] are still operating the Mirage 2000-5, and though they should eventually be phased out and replaced by Rafales, no official timeline has been announced. 

What is the Mirage 2000D variant? 

The Mirage 2000D (Diversified) variant is an updated twin-seat version of the multirole fighter jet developed by Dassault Aviation in the 1970s. Based on the Mirage 2000N (Nuclear), which served as the primary nuclear strike platform for the French Air Force until 2018 [since replaced in this role by the Rafale – ed. note], the Mirage 2000D is specifically designed for long-range precision strikes using conventional weapons. 

The fleet operated by the French Air Force is currently undergoing a modernization campaign to update the avionics and allow the employment of a new cannon pod and MICA air-to-air missiles, with the first aircraft delivered in 2021 and deliveries initially scheduled until 2025.  

However, in January 2023, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that the next Military Planning Law (LPM) for 2024-2030 would result in the transition of the fighter fleet of the French Air and Space Force to “all Rafale,” suggesting the retirement of the Mirage 2000. In April 2023, the drafted LPM revealed a reduction in the number of renovated aircraft from 55 to 48. 

In September 2023, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that he had reached a deal with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron on training Ukrainian pilots in France.  

Speculations arose that France could thus be providing training for the Mirage 2000, though a month before, General James Hecker, commander of US Air Forces in Europe, US Air Forces Africa, and NATO Allied Command indicated that Ukrainian pilots selected to operate the F-16 would “go down to France and fly in the Alpha Jet for a little bit”. That information was never confirmed by the French authorities.   

More information might arise soon, with the Defense Minister of Ukraine Rustem Umierov expected to meet his French counterpart Sébastien Lecornu in Paris on January 18, 2024. 

Valeri Zaloujny, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reported on his Telegram channel that the Ukrainian Air Force destroyed an A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft and an Il-22 air control post. 

“Thanks to the Air Force for the excellently planned and conducted operation in the Azov region,” Zaloujny said, without specifying what asset was used to target the two aircraft. 

The information had been initially reported by The Kyiv Independent, citing Yuriy Mysiagin, Deputy Chairman of the Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence. It was later confirmed by Kyrylo Budanov, commander of the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Directorate to The War Zone. 

According to reports, the Il-22M11 tail number 75106 was on a mission in the Strilkove area, on the western bank of the Sea of Azov, when it was hit by a projectile. Despite significant damage, the pilots managed to broadcast a distress call and urgently diverted to Anapa Airfield in Russia, on the northeastern coast of the Black Sea. 

“Urgently request an ambulance and fire team,” the crew of the affected aircraft said in an audio recording shared by RBC.  

The Ilyushin Il-22 is designed for command and control operations and to serve as an early detection aircraft, featuring an Airborne Warning and Control System enabling it. Despite its more modest size compared to the A-50, the Il-22 plays a crucial role in coordinating airborne activities. 

Soon after, the Beriev A-50 quad-jet was reportedly struck by a projectile while on a mission in the Kyrylivka area of Zaporizhia Oblast, also on the western coast of the Sea of Azov. 

The fate of the Beriev A-50 remains uncertain, as it disappeared from radar and ceased responding to radio calls. According to RBC, a Russian Su-30 pilot in the area reported detecting an explosion and witnessing the fall of an aircraft, presumably the A-50. 

The Beriev A-50 is a Russian airborne command and control aircraft, serving as the country’s counterpart to NATO’s Boeing E-3 Sentry. Based on the Ilyushin Il-76 transport, it is equipped with an Airborne Warning and Control System or AWACS rotodome, and functions as an early detection and command platform, offering comprehensive aerial terrain visibility. 

Potential critical blow to Russian airborne command and control fleet 

The targeted aircraft are among the most expensive and valuable assets in Russia’s detection and command fleet. So, the question remains: what type of weapon was employed to target these aircraft over the Sea of Azov?  

The two aircraft were flying over 160 kilometers (100 miles) from the current front line. For comparison, the US-made Patriot air defense system, which was supplied to Ukraine, has an operational range of 70 to 100 kilometers (40 to 60 miles), depending on the variant. 

If they were both rendered inoperative, this would mark the single worst day for the Russian Air Force in terms of lost value since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022. 

According to the 2023 World Air Forces directory, the Russian Air Force operated 15 A-50 and 30 Il-22 aircraft respectively. 

However, in February 2023, Belarusian resistance fighters targeted a Beriev A-50 stationed at Machulishchy Air Base near Minsk, Belarus, using an explosive drone – the extent of the damages remains unclear to this day.  

In June 2023, during the brief insurrection of the Wagner mercenaries, an Ilyushin Il-22VZPU airborne command aircraft was downed, killing its crew of eight people. 

Explosions were heard early on in Kyiv where the city’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, announced that the “anti-air defense is actively functioning”. Shortly afterwards, a nationwide air alert was activated. 

The attacks specifically targeted the capital, Kyiv, as well as the areas of Kharkiv in the Northeast, Lviv in the West, Dnipro in the East, and Odesa in the South. Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Iouri Ihnat stated that Russia had fired a “record number of missiles” for a single day.  

“Around 3:00 a.m., the enemy launched strategic aircraft into the air – Tu-95MS bombers,” the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said. “A total of 18 aircraft, which entered the launch line around 6:00 a.m. and launched at least 90 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 air-based cruise missiles.” 

The Ukrainian military claims to have destroyed 114 aerial targets out of 158 during the recent Russian attacks, including various types of missiles and strike drones. 

Meanwhile Russia insists that all designated targets were hit in its airstrikes on Ukraine between December 23 and 29. The Kremlin is said to have targeted military infrastructure, ammunition depots, and locations where Ukrainian soldiers and foreign mercenaries were deployed. 

According to Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin, the Russian attacks caused at least 16 fatalities and 97 injuries, including two children aged 6 and 8. Rescue operations were still ongoing when this article was published. 

“All services are working around the clock and providing the necessary aid,” President Volodymyr Zelensky declared. “We will surely respond to terrorist strikes. And we will continue to fight for the security of our entire country, every city, and every citizen. Russian terror must and will lose.” 

International condemnation of Russia’s “strategy of terror” 

In the face of Russia’s unprecedented bombings in Ukraine, European leaders expressed resolute condemnations. 

“It was yet another cowardly and indiscriminate targeting of schools, a metro station and a hospital,” said Josep Borrell, the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, condemning Russia’s “cowardly” and “blind” attacks, before concluding: “The EU stands with Ukraine, as long as it takes.” 

Echoing these sentiments, the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs also voiced its concern.  

“Russia is continuing its strategy of terror aimed at destroying Ukrainian civilian infrastructure in order to undermine resilience. of the Ukrainian population in this second winter of the conflict,” the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated. “France will continue to support Ukraine and provide it with the necessary assistance to enable it to exercise its self-defense.” 

The announcement was made by Lieutenant General Nikolai Oleshchuk, commander of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 

Details surrounding the incident remain unclear, as Oleshchuk did not specify whether the Su-34s were shot down in the air or targeted on the ground at an airfield.  

The Telegram channel Fighterbomber, which is run by an individual associated with the Russian Air Force, has confirmed the loss of at least one aircraft and suggested that some pilots may have lost their lives in the incident.  

According to the blogger, the Su-34s were allegedly brought down by a Ukrainian-operated, US-made Patriot anti-air defense system. 

Unconfirmed photos have circulated on social media from one of the landing sites of the ejected Russian pilots, claiming that the crew survived.  

The Sukhoi Su-34, nicknamed ‘Fullback’ by NATO, was developed in the 1980s and has been in production since 2005. Serving as a versatile fighter-bomber, it is used for conducting strike missions against air, sea and ground targets. A notable feature is its unique two-person configuration, with crew members seated side by side in the cockpit. 

With a maximum payload capacity of approximately 8,000 kilograms (18,000 pounds), some sources suggest it can carry an impressive 12,000 kilograms (26,000 pounds) of ordnance. The Su-34 has played a pivotal role in the Russian Aerospace Forces during the invasion of Ukraine to conduct bombing missions from bases along the border such as Morozovsk and Malshevo. 

According to the Oryx blog, which documents the visually confirmed loss of equipment during the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, 21 Su-34 strike aircraft have been lost in the conflict. 

The aircraft, registered UR-AZR, departed without any passengers onboard at 9 am local time. The plane had been stuck at the airport since February 2022, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine led to a total closure of the country’s airports and airspace.  

Skyline Express is the new brand adopted by Azur Air Ukraine in 2023 and is linked to Turkish tour-operator Annex Tour, which also controls an eponymous charter airline in Russia (Azur Air). Since the start of the war, the rebranded Skyline Express has relocated to Poland, from where it operates charter flights to several destinations in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. 

Although Ukrainian airspace has been closed since the start of the full-scale war, some aircraft have been occasionally allowed to depart the country. 

This included two Turkish Air Force A400M transport aircraft that had arrived at Kyiv Boryspil just hours ahead of the start of the Russian invasion and managed to return to their home country on December 20, 2023. 

A large portion of Ukraine’s airliner fleet managed to evacuate the country ahead of the start of the invasion. This was in no small part due to the fact that aircraft lessors began to request such a move in early 2022 when Russia started to make significant threats. 

However, some airlines have seen some of their aircraft stranded since February 2022.  

One such airline is Wizz Air, which still has three Airbus A320 aircraft in Ukraine. A fourth aircraft of the same type was safely evacuated on September 13, 2022, from Danylo Halytskyi International Airport Lviv (LWO) to Katowice (KTW), Poland. Ukrainian airline SkyUp also managed to get a Boeing 737-800 out of Kyiv-Boryspil in April 2023. 

In a post on its Linkedin page published December 20, 2023, Kyiv-Boryspil airport stated that it is working with the relevant authorities to set up a “security infrastructure concept” in order to resume flights at some point in the future, despite the ongoing military conflict. 

On the night of November 24-25, Russia launched against Kyiv the largest drone attack since the start of the war.. 

Up to 75 Shahed drones launched from Russian-held territory to the southeast of the Ukrainian capital as well as across the border to the northeast, converged for a massed attack on Kyiv. All but one were shot down, according to Ukrainian sources, although falling debris damaged several buildings in Kyiv, injuring five people, including an eleven year-old. 

A Russian Kh-59 cruise missile was also intercepted by Ukrainian air defences over the Dnipropetrovsk region. 

On the following night there was another drone attach against Kyiv. This eight of the nine drones involved in the attach were intercepted before they could reach their targets. 

Ukraine responded to these attacks by mounting its own attach against the Moscow and and other cities in Western Russia. 

The mayor of Moscow, Sergey Sobianin, stated on his Telegram channel that eleven Ukrainian drones had been shot down on the night of November 25-26, while approaching the Russian capital. These were followed by another 13 drones in the early hours in the morning.

Explosions were reported in the Naro-Fominsk and Odintsovo districts, in the outskirts of the Russian capital, as well as in the Kaluga, Tula, Briansk and Smolensk regions, to the west and south of the city. 

An out-of-control drone impacted a residential building near Tula, with one person reportedly injured. 

Several videos of the alleged drone impacts have appeared on Russian social media channels.

During the attacks, Vnukovo (VKO) and Domodedovo (DME) airports, in Moscow, had to stop operations temporarily, with the result of several flights being delayed or cancelled. Some flights at Sheremetevo airport (SVO) were also delayed.

The Myasishchev M-55, or Mystic B, was developed in the USSR, following the United States (US) dominance in the field of reconnaissance during the 1950s.  

At the time the US was deploying spy balloons above Russia and China and gathering crucial intelligence from over 60,000 feet, out of the reach of Soviet aircraft.  

The USSR in turn tried to develop an aircraft that would reach the same heights as the reconnaissance balloons so they could be destroyed. 

When a US U2 spy plane, itself capable of flying at 70,000 feet, was shot down in 1960 over the USSR, the Soviets were able to gain vital knowledge in high-altitude spy plane technology.  

Rather than developing a combat aircraft the USSR set about developing its own spy plane which eventually produced the M-55.  

However, since the Cold War M-55 aircraft (of which five were reportedly made) have been deployed to carry out earth-sciences research rather than any military missions. 

The MOD’s latest warning has advised that an M-55 has been observed carrying a “military reconnaissance pod” and that Russia is likely considering bringing the high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft back into service. 

In an update on November 19, 2023 the MOD said: “A critical flaw in Russian procurement strategy has been its failure to establish an adequate Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) capability. This is critical for the timely and accurate prosecution of targets by air, sea, and ground forces.”  

The MOD continued: “There is a realistic possibility that the M-55 will return to frontline service to bolster Russia’s limited ISTAR capabilities over Ukraine. Operating at high altitudes enables the sensors to work at considerable stand-off range. It is almost certain that the aircraft will conduct missions against Ukraine from the relative safety of Russian airspace.” 

The move comes in response to a request from Ukraine to provide Western fighter jets in support of its fight against Russia. This review intends to assess how such a handover would impact Sweden’s defense capabilities, the timeline for replacing the provided Gripen, and the logistics surrounding the training of Ukrainian pilots and ground personnel.  

A defense committee chaired by Swedish Minister for Defense Pål Jonson will be held on September 14, 2023, to discuss the conditions of this risk study, Sverige Radio, the Swedish public radio, reports. 

During a visit to Sweden in late August 2023, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported holding discussions with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson about the delivery of Gripen fighters. 16 to 18 of the 90 Gripen fighters operated by the Swedish Air Force are reportedly considered for transfer. 

The aircraft is considered a candidate of choice for the Ukrainian Air Force, as it was designed to be operated from rough airstrip or improvised road bases, with minimal infrastructure, in accordance with the dispersed operations doctrine of Sweden [and Finland – ed. note]. 

Dispersed operations allow an air force in wartime to complicate enemy targeting by multiplying operating locations. The concept, popular during the Cold War-era, found renewed interest in the doctrines of Western armed forces, especially after observing the ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russia.  

Belgian officials cited the fleet condition as a primary reason for their reluctance, estimating that the airframes have accumulated too many flight hours and are at the end of their service life. Coincidentally, Belgium will retire the first F-16A, registered FA-95, from service on August 8, 2023, after it reaches 8,000 flight hours, the end of structural life set by Lockheed Martin. 

Lieutenant General Frédéric Goetynck, head of the department of material resources of the Belgian defense, said: “No one will take the political decision to deliver equipment with cracks in its bodywork.”  

Belgium’s Minister of Defense, Ludivine Dedonder, stressed that the Belgian Air Component’s current priority is to safeguard the airspace over the Benelux and the Baltic countries.  

The fleet of 44 F-16 currently constitutes the backbone of Belgium’s air defense. These aircraft are of the same variant as those that Denmark, Norway, and the Netherlands committed to deliver to Ukraine in late August 2023. The four countries, collectively known as the European Participating Air Forces (EPAF), placed a joint order in the late 1970s to replace their Lockheed F-104 Starfighter squadrons. 

These F-16A/B Block 20 MLU (Mid-Life Update) aircraft are equipped with a Head-Up Display (HUD) suitable for night operations, a GPS receiver, and a Westinghouse (now Northrop Grumman) AN/APG-66 fire control radar, which enables them to carry and launch six AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles with a range of 150 kilometers (95 miles). They have the capability to release precision-guided weapons such as the GBU-24 Paveway III and Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM). Additionally, this variant of the fighter is outfitted to accommodate Sniper and Litening targeting pods. 

In October 2018, Belgium made the decision to select the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II over the Eurofighter Typhoon and the Dassault Rafale. The country purchased a total of 34 F-35A aircraft to replace the Belgian Air Component fleet of F-16 fighters. Initially due by December 2023, the final delivery of the first two Belgian F-35A combat aircraft was reportedly postponed, pending a comprehensive certification and qualification of the onboard software. 

Nevertheless, as an integral part of the international coalition to provide Ukraine with the F-16, the authorities in Belgium have asserted their commitment to contribute to the joint efforts by focusing on training Ukrainian pilots and supporting the refurbishment of planes provided by other countries. The idea of cannibalizing the Belgian F-16s for their parts and components has not yet been publicly discussed. 

According to Vasily Golubev, the governor of the Rostov region, two drones were downed in separate incidents around 3 a.m. local time. The first drone was intercepted west of the city without causing any casualties.  

The second drone, which injured one person, crashed in the historic city center, a mere 500 meters (1,600 feet) away from the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military District, from where operations in Ukraine are coordinated. It was in Rostov that, in June 2023, the infamous Russian private military company Wagner Group took control of military sites in its thwarted mutiny against Vladimir Putin’s regime.

The day before the attack on Rostov, a Russian missile struck an open-air market and the shopping area in the city center of Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region. The same day, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was on an official visit to Kyiv.  

The attack claimed the lives of 17 people, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. 

“The Russian troops are terrorists who will not be forgiven and will not rest,” Denys Shmyhal, the Prime Minister of Ukraine, commented. “There will be a fair retribution for everything.” 

“Russia continues to terrorize the civilian population in Ukraine,” an EU spokesperson said in a statement. “Intentional attacks against civilians are war crimes. All the instigators, perpetrators and accomplices of these atrocities will be held accountable.” 

The controversy began when reports surfaced about an alleged incident involving a Russian drone in the vicinity of the Romanian-Ukrainian border. On the night of September 4, 2023, a swarm of Iranian-made Shahed-136 kamikaze drones was launched by Russia, targeting Ukrainian grain silos in the city port of Izmail on the Danube River. The targets were located a mere 400 meters away from the Romanian riverbank. Rumors quickly emerged that at least one drone overshot its target and fell onto Romania territory. 

Initially, the Romanian army and President Iohannis “firmly denied” that drones had landed on Romanian soil. However, the situation took an unexpected twist when Ukrainian authorities released footage supporting their claims. The geolocated video footage depicted a drone explosion on the Romanian side of the Danube River, further fueling suspicions. 

“Our partners have tendencies to try not to escalate the interpretation of certain events in order not to be drawn into a direct conflict,” Dmytro Kuleba, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, commented at the time. 

In response to mounting evidence, Minister of National Defense Angel Tîlvăr held a press conference on September 6, 2023, during which he confirmed the discovery of remnants of a Russian drone within Romanian territory, specifically near the village of Plauru. The Minister acknowledged the seriousness of the situation and expressed concerns about the potential implications for regional security. 

“This discovery is a matter of great concern for our national security,” the Minister stated. “We are committed to investigating the incident thoroughly and taking appropriate measures to ensure the safety and sovereignty of our borders.” 

The Defense Minister’s admission took place mere hours after the last press conference held by President Klaus Iohannis on the topic, in which he reiterated that “no piece, no drone and no part of a device landed in Romania.” 

When questioned whether Romanian authorities tried to hide that information, Tîlvăr said: 
 
“My initial information was based on what was available to me at the time. It was done in good faith and I had nothing to gain. In no way was there an attempt to hide the incident and we did not want to hide the finding of the drone pieces.” 

In a United States (US) Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing on September 5, 2023, AerCap said it “received cash insurance settlement proceeds in the total amount of approximately US$645 million in full settlement of our insurance claims under the Aeroflot group’s insurance policies in respect of the 17 aircraft and five spare engines” that were leased to the Russian airline.

Once it receives the funds from the “Insurance Company NSK”, a Russia-based insurance company, AerCap will release its claims against the insurer, Aeroflot, Rossiya Airlines, and other reinsurers related to the aircraft and engines.

“The amount of our separate US$3.4 billion claim against the “All Risks” insurers under our contingent and possessed insurance policy that relates to these 17 aircraft and five spare engines is approximately US$908 million,” AerCap noted in the filing, adding that the settlement proceeds reduced its claim to around $2.75 billion.

The transaction of the funds was approved by the US Department of Commerce (DOC) and the US Department of the Treasury (USDT), since Russia and its banks were sanctioned by the country following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

AerCap is still involved in several other insurance settlement discussions with other Russia-based carriers but warned that “it is uncertain whether any of these discussions will result in any insurance settlement or receipt of insurance settlement proceeds and, if so, in what amount”.

The lessor also noted that it remains unclear whether the authorities will allow the funds to be transferred in case of another settlement agreement.

According to ch-aviation.com data, AerCap’s owned aircraft portfolio totals 1,799 units, with the lessor managing a total fleet of 1,897 aircraft (owned and managed).

In a previous case, a US judge ruled in favor of another lessor, BOC Aviation, asking Russia’s Volga-Dnepr Airlines to pay more than $400 million for defaulting on three Boeing 747-8F leases. BOC Aviation recovered one of the aircraft, while the other two are still stuck in Russia.

“The Su-34 fighter jet used the Kinzhal hypersonic missile in the special military operation [the Russian terminology for its invasion of Ukraine – ed. note],” a Russian defense official told the state news agency TASS. “The first crew who successfully accomplished such a task will receive state awards.” 

The time or location of the launch was not specified.

What is the Kinzhal hypersonic missile?

The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal is a hypersonic air-launched ballistic missile that can reach a top speed of between Mach 10 and Mach 12 (10 or 12 times the speed of sound). It is based on the first stage of the 9K720 Iskander ground-launched ballistic missile, with the addition of a booster to bring it to hypersonic speeds in the atmosphere. Based on its similarities with the Iskander, its mass is estimated at around 4,300 kilograms (9,500 pounds).  

Until now, it had only been officially fired by specially modified MiG-31K heavy interceptors, which can reportedly carry up to 9,000 kilograms (20,000 pounds) of payload, reach a top speed of up to Mach 2.83 (3,500 kilometers per hour), and an altitude ceiling of over 25,000 meters (82,000 feet).  

In comparison, the Su-34 has a similar maximum payload, reported at around 8,000 kilograms (18,000 pounds), though some sources claim it can carry up to 12,000 kilograms (26,000 pounds) of ordnance. Its flight performances, however, are more modest with a reported speed of Mach 1.53 (1,900 kilometers per hour) and a maximum flight altitude of 17,000 meters (55,000 feet). Thus, the Kinzhal capabilities should also be reduced when fired from a Su-34.

The Kinzhal is one of several hypersonic weapons unveiled by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2018 and aimed at countering NATO’s air defense systems. It was the first one to be used in a combat mission, with strikes first reported in Ukraine in March 2023. 

A spokesperson from the US Department of Defense reported the interception of a Kh-47 hypersonic missile over Kyiv on May 4, 2023, by the recently deployed Patriot air defense system. 

The warhead of a Kinzhal missile as displayed in Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise (Credit: Kyiv City State Administration) 

In an evening address on September 3, 2023, in which he announced the replacement of Ukraine defense minister Oleksiy Reznikov by Rustem Umerov, Zelenskyy briefly mentioned the agreement as part of a call with Macron held earlier in the day.  

“There is a very important agreement on training our pilots in France,” the Ukrainian president said. “Our coalition of modern fighters is getting more powerful.” 

The details of the agreement were not specified. However, France could contribute in several ways to the international coalition to provide modern NATO fighter jets to Ukraine. 

How can France contribute to the training of Ukrainian pilots? 

Although the French Air and Space Force has never employed US-made F-16 fighter jets, it possesses expertise in NATO standard training and procedures.  

Consequently, France could provide training for Ukrainian pilots in NATO procedures using one of its advanced jet trainers, such as the PC-21 or the recently retired Alpha Jet. Advanced training is the last stage before receiving basic training on the F-16, also known as B-Course. The latter will be provided by either the United States or an international coalition spearheaded by Denmark and the Netherlands.

On August 21, 2023, General James Hecker, commander of US Air Forces in Europe, US Air Forces Africa, and NATO Allied Command, did mention that Ukrainian pilots selected to operate the F-16 would “go down to France and fly in the Alpha Jet for a little bit.” That information was never confirmed by the French authorities. 

Another less likely outcome would be the provision of combat aircraft by France, such as the Mirage 2000C. In 2022, the French Air Force retired this early single-seat version of the fighter, dating back to the 1980s and used primarily for air defense.  

AeroTime sent a request for comment to the French Air and Space Force and the French Ministry of Armed Forces. 

The incident, captured on video and released by the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (GUR), shows the Ukrainian UAV being shot at by a Mi-28 attack helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut.

According to the GUR, two Russian combat helicopters and an aircraft participated in the chase. The exact model of the drone was not specified, though it appears to have been a fixed-wing aircraft powered by a propeller.

Recently, Ukraine has begun an intense campaign of drone strikes targeting Russian territory. Early on August 30, 2023, a drone attack struck an airport in the north-western Russian city of Pskov, near the Estonian border, and damaged four Ilyushin 76 transport aircraft. Ukraine has not officially claimed responsibility for attacks carried out within Russian territory.

Following meetings on August 30, 2023, with Catherine Colonna, the French Minister of Foreign Affairs, and President Emmanuel Macron, Kuleba gave an interview to Le Monde in which he expressed satisfaction with France’s “military, humanitarian, diplomatic, and economic” support for Ukraine.  

On August 21, 2023, General James Hecker, commander of US Air Forces in Europe, US Air Forces Africa, and NATO Allied Command, revealed that France would oversee the advanced training of Ukrainian pilots selected to operate the F-16, using the Alpha Jet dual-seater twin-jet aircraft of the French Air Force. 

Minister Kuleba spoke of Ukraine’s ambitious approach towards its defense needs, indicating that the country does not intend to limit its aspirations solely to the US-made F-16 fighter jets that an international coalition had pledged to supply.  

“We are working with other countries which produce latest-generation aircraft,” Kuleba said, hailing the potential supply of Rafale by France as a “strategic” long-term investment. 

However, the provision of combat aircraft presents various technical challenges in France. In February 2023, the Dassault Mirage 2000C fighter jet was regarded as a potential contender. The year before, the French Air Force bid adieu to this early single-seat version of the fighter, dating back to the 1980s and used primarily for air defense. 

While the Mirage 2000C may have limited effectiveness against contemporary Russian fighter aircraft, it could potentially play a role in intercepting Iran-made Shahed-136 kamikaze drones and Kalibr cruise missiles utilized by Russia to target Ukrainian cities. However, considering that only 12 fighters remained when the variant was retired, the number of available aircraft might not have justified the investment in training or the potential for modernization. 

While much more modern and capable, the availability of Rafale fighters is also limited due to its recent commercial success. Dassault’s assembly lines are operating at full capacity to meet an extensive order backlog.  

In 2020, the then-Defense Minister, Florence Parly, outlined an ambitious plan to increase the fleet of Rafale fighters, a cornerstone of the French Air Force, from 102 to 129 jets by 2025. However, the fulfillment of two consecutive orders for Greece and Croatia, involving the transfer of 24 second-hand French Rafale fighters, has posed a significant challenge to this expansion roadmap. 

Given these constraints, Kyiv’s request may face hurdles in gaining acceptance from France in the short term. The prospect of Rafale fighters donning Ukrainian colors is not entirely far-fetched, though. In March 2021, during a visit to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President Emmanuel Macron reportedly held a conversation about the potential sale of Dassault Rafale fighter jets to Ukraine being one of his “top priorities”. 

The ceremony took place during the Informal Meeting of the EU Defence Ministers held in Toledo, Spain, on August 29, 2023. The facility will be established at the Romanian Air Force 86th Air Base in Borcea, Romania. The Royal Dutch Air Force is set to deploy a number of F-16 aircraft to the base. Flight instructors and technical personnel of Lockheed Martin, the fighter jet manufacturer, will provide technical support. 

“Through this center, Romania commits to provide a high-quality training environment, with access to technical resources and state-of-the-art know-how not only for the Romanian pilots, but also for those from the Allied and partner states, including Ukraine,” Romanian National Defense minister Angel Tîlvăr commented.  

To retire the aging MiG-21 LanceR fighters that formed the core of Romania’s fighter fleet, the country has procured two sets of pre-owned Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters. These acquisitions involved obtaining 17 aircraft from Portugal in 2016 and an additional 32 from Norway in 2022. 

Romania is also part of the international coalition to help Ukraine procure F-16 fighters. On August 20, 2023, Denmark and the Netherlands both pledged to deliver their respective fleet of fighters, followed by Norway four days later. The United States will also assist by training Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-16 from September 2023.  

Regional governor Mikhail Vedernikov said that the attack at Pskov Airport (PKV) was repelled. 

The state news agency TASS, citing rescue services, reported that four Il-76 heavy cargo aircraft suffered damage due to the attack on the airport. RIA Novosti specified that two of them caught fire as a result of the drone strikes. 

The Ilyushin Il-76 is a large, four-engine jet transport aircraft developed by the Soviet Union during the 1970s. It is designed to perform a variety of roles, including airlifting heavy and oversized cargo and transporting troops. 

Pskov Airport houses the 334th Military Transport Aviation Regiment which flies the Ilyushin Il-76. 

A video shared by Vedernikov showed a massive fire, accompanied by explosions. 

In response to the attacks, authorities canceled all flights from Pskov Airport for the day, pending an assessment of potential damage to the runway.  

Simultaneously, Ukrainian drones were reported across Russian territory during the night, over the southern region of Bryansk and one over the central region of Oryol, with some reportedly penetrating regions near Moscow.

Air traffic was briefly suspended at the capital city’s Domodedovo, Vnukovo and Sheremetyevo international airports. 

Overnight Russian strikes on Kyiv, two dead, two wounded 

In the meantime, Russian armed forces also targeted Ukraine’s capital, launching several waves of Shahed-136/131 loitering munitions, as well as cruise missiles air-launched from Tu-95MS bombers over the Caspian Sea and the Engels city area. 

“All 28 cruise missiles and 15 out of 16 attack UAVs were destroyed,” Kyiv City Military Administration reported. 

The mayor of Kyiv, Vitaliy Klitschko, reported that two people were killed and two more were hospitalized with injuries as a result of the Russian attack. 

The SYPAQ PPDS drone boasts an operational range of up to 120 kilometers (74 miles), 3 kilograms of payload, and a cruise speed of 60 kilometers per hour (37 miles per hour).  

But what makes the PPDS stand out is that it is primarily made from a material similar to cardboard. It is a low-cost, expendable platform that can be transported as a small package and assembled rapidly with minimal tools. Its composition also makes it harder to detect by radar systems.  

In May 2023, the Melbourne-based company reported having delivered the system to Ukraine. 

“It is an honor to be supporting the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” SYPAQ CEO Amanda Holt said at the time. “PPDS is an Australian capability that will help the Ukrainian people defend their country.” 

AeroTime has sent a request for comment to SYPAQ. 

The first use of the PPDS by the Ukrainian military was reported on August 27, 2023, by the Fighterbomber Telegram channel, which is run by a person associated with the Russian Air Force. 

“Tonight, [Ukrainians] used them in a swarm, mixing drones with warheads with empty drones,” the post read. “I don’t know exactly what engines were on the drones, but if they were electric-powered, then they were not launched from Ukraine.” 

Though the exact location of the strikes was not shared, both Ukraine and Russia reported a drone attack on Kursk Vostochny Airfield the same day.  

An insider from the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told Kyiv Post that a significant quantity of drones was deployed, resulting in the claimed destruction of four Su-30 aircraft and one MiG-29. Additionally, two missile launchers belonging to a Pantsir air defense system, as well as the radars of an S-300 air defense system, were reportedly damaged. 

The Russian news agency TASS reported that “aircraft-type UAVs” were intercepted by Russian air defense systems over Kursk, with one drone causing damage to an apartment building. 

Kursk Airfield is located 97 kilometers (60 miles) away from the Ukrainian border.

The announcement was made during a press briefing on August 24, 2023, by Brigadier General Pat Ryder, the spokesperson for the Pentagon. 

“The training provided by the United States will complement the F-16 pilot and maintenance training that’s already underway in Europe and further deepens our support for the F-16 Training Coalition led by Denmark and the Netherlands,” Ryder said. 

Starting from September 2023, the pilots will first receive English proficiency training at the Defense Language Institute English Language Center (DLIELC) in Lackland, Texas. 

“Although some Ukrainian pilots have English language skills, we are anticipating that all of the pilots coming to the United States will require some level of additional English language instruction, given the complexities and the specialized English that’s required to fly these aircraft,” the Pentagon spokesperson explained. 

Subsequently, the Ukrainian trainees will proceed to the Morris Air Base in Arizona, home to the 162nd Wing of the Arizona Air National Guard, which specializes in training foreign aviators to operate the F-16 fighter. 

Ryder explained that a basic new F-16 pilot, who has not received extensive training on the US side, typically undergoes training lasting approximately eight months, while for an experienced pilot, the training might take around five months or so.  

“A lot is going to depend on those individual pilots and the assessment in terms of where they’re at in that process,” the spokesperson concluded. 

Shortly after the Pentagon briefing, US President Joe Biden made a call to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine on the occasion of Ukraine’s Independence Day, in which they discussed the training of Ukrainian fighter pilots and “assurance of expedited approval for other nations to transfer their F-16s to Ukraine.” 

The same day, during a visit to Kyiv, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre announced that Norway would join the Netherlands and Denmark in donating F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.   

This move, first reported by TV2 and then confirmed by NRK and Aftenposten, would make Norway the third NATO country, following the Netherlands and Denmark, to contribute F-16 combat aircraft to Ukraine. Approached by Agence France-Presse, a Norwegian Ministry of Defense spokesperson did not want to “neither confirm nor deny” that information. 

The unconfirmed decision came on the occasion of Ukraine’s Independence Day on August 24, 2023, as Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre embarked on an official visit to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.  

On August 20, 2023, Denmark and the Netherlands announced in a joint statement that they would deliver their respective F-16 fleet to Ukraine. Denmark will supply a total of 19 F-16 fighters to Kyiv. The Netherlands did not specify how many aircraft would be supplied, but 42 are available. 

Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands have all transitioned from the F-16 to the F-35 Lightning II.   

The story was first reported by the Ukrainian Pravda, citing “high-ranking sources within Ukrainian intelligence agencies.”

The mission lasted over six months and concluded with the Russian pilot rerouting his Mi-8 AMTSh assault transport helicopter during a logistical flight between two airbases, transporting parts intended for Su-27 and Su-30SM fighter jets.

Two crew members were also on board the flight, which eventually landed in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine. They were both neutralized during the operation.

The family of the pilot was evacuated from Russian territory by the GUR.

The Ukrainian media outlet published pictures showing the helicopter along with its content.

Ukrainska Pravda obtained photos of the Russian Mil Mi-8 helicopter that landed at the Poltava airfield in Kharkiv Oblast a couple of weeks ago.

UP, citing sources, stated that it was the result of a long-term special operation of the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR MO).… https://t.co/Gpw2qwEWJX pic.twitter.com/vcXmamjj94

— Status-6 (@Archer83Able) August 23, 2023

A similar plot was allegedly thwarted by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) in July 2022, in which Ukrainian special service employees were reported to have offered Russian pilots up to $2 million to defect.

The FSB intercepted the plot and claimed it managed to extract secret data from the Ukrainian side. However, according to Christo Grozev, a journalist and the lead Russia investigator at investigative agency Bellingcat involved in the operation, the Ukrainian services were aware of the FSB’s involvement and fed fake information.

On April 20, 2023, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) announced that several Ukrainian service members involved in the unapproved plot would be charged after their actions led to a missile attack on the Kanatove airfield on July 23, 2022.

“Tonight, the crew of a Su-30SM [fighter jet] belonging to the Naval Aviation of the Black Sea Fleet destroyed a reconnaissance boat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of Russian gas production facilities in the Black Sea,” the Russian Ministry of Defense announced on Telegram on August 22, 2023. 

The ministry did not specify what kind of boat had been destroyed, or where exactly the incident had taken place. TASS news agency reported that the vessel was unmanned. 

Following the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia has claimed the majority of the northern Black Sea deep shelf as part of its exclusive economic zone and seized several Ukrainian offshore platforms. 

Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, energy infrastructure, including gas production facilities and pipelines, has been caught in the crosshairs, posing not only economic risks but also environmental hazards.  

In June 2022, Ukraine simultaneously targeted three gas production plants off the Crimea peninsula known as the Boyko towers, which the Odesa military administration said Russia was using as air defense and radar platforms. 

Ukrainian drones shot down for fifth consecutive day in Moscow 

The Russian Ministry of Defense also announced having shot down Ukrainian drones early on August 22, 2023.  

“An attempt by the Kyiv regime to carry out terrorist attacks by unmanned aerial vehicles was thwarted tonight,” the ministry said on Telegram. “Two UAVs were detected and destroyed by air defense systems over the territory of the Moscow Region. There were no casualties as a result of the suppressed terrorist attacks.” 

One UAV was shot down in the Krasnogorsk area, located 20 kilometers northwest of the Kremlin, and a second in the Chastsy area, 50 kilometers southwest of central Moscow, according to Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin. 

Consequently, all international airports in Moscow, namely Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, and Vnukovo, were closed to arrivals and departures. 

“Nine passenger flights were rerouted to alternative airports,” Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency said in a statement. The restrictions were eventually lifted in the morning. 

The incident marks the fifth consecutive day of drone attacks being reported in the Moscow region. 

This commitment comes days after the United States gave its formal approval for Denmark and the Netherlands to transfer F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.  

The announcements were made during a visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the Netherlands and Denmark on August 20 and 21, 2023. 

“In light of Russia’s brutal and unprovoked aggression, Denmark and the Netherlands, supported by the US, share the conviction that continued support to Ukraine is of utmost importance,” the governments of both countries said in a joint statement. “We agree to transfer F-16 aircraft to Ukraine and the Ukrainian Air Force in close cooperation with the U.S. and other partners, when the conditions for such a transfer are met. Conditions include, but are not limited to, successfully selected, tested and trained Ukrainian F-16 personnel as well as necessary authorizations, infrastructure and logistics.” 

Copenhagen will supply a total of 19 F-16 fighters to Kyiv, Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said, with six to be delivered around January 2024. In late June 2023, the Royal Danish Air Force (RDAF), known as the Flyvevåbnet, announced that it would retire its fleet of F-16 fighter jets from service as early as 2024 or 2025, contrary to an existing plan to keep them operational until 2027, to make them available to Ukraine.

The Netherlands did not specify how many aircraft would be supplied, with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte only stating that the country has a fleet of 42 F-16s. The Dutch Air Force previously planned to continue flying the F-16 until the end of 2024 to conduct Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) missions.

“Another step to bolster Ukraine’s sky shield is F-16s,” Zelenskyy said. “We will use these jets to keep Russian terrorists away from Ukrainian cities and villages.” 

Ukrainian pilots will not be trained before 2024 

The timeline for delivery depends on the training of the Ukrainian pilots and technicians designated for operating and servicing the aircraft. In an online meeting with the Defense Writers Group, General James Hecker, commander of US Air Forces in Europe, US Air Forces Africa, and NATO Allied Command, clarified the training situation. 

A pool of 32 Ukrainian pilots was selected, out of which eight were found to possess the necessary English proficiency to begin training. The remainder will receive terminology lessons in the United Kingdom. The selected cadets are young, with Ukraine keeping its most experienced pilots on the frontlines. 
 
“Then they’re going to get a little bit more training on propellers, and then go down to France and fly in the Alpha Jet for a little bit,” Hecker said, as reported by the Air & Space Forces Magazine. 

Popularly referred to as the “Gadget” in France, the Alpha Jet, also known as Alphajet, stands as a dual-seater twin-jet aircraft created collaboratively by Dassault Aviation and Breguet. Originally conceived for both training and close air support, this aircraft emerged from a collaborative effort between France and Germany. Operating since 1979, it has been a cornerstone of the French Air Force’s pilot training, taking over the role from the Fouga CM.170 Magister. 

The French Air and Space Force recently retired its Alpha Jet E jet trainer fleet, transitioning to the Swiss-made Pilatus PC-21. Around 30 Alpha Jets were mothballed, while 53 were kept to fulfill the role of “aggressor” during adversary training and to be flown by the Patrouille de France, the country’s main military aerobatic team.  

The final six fighter pilots to train on the Alpha Jet were promoted on March 16, 2023, with the Côte d’Or Training Squadron in Cazaux, near Bordeaux. The facility is likely to undertake the advanced training of Ukrainian pilots in the future. 

The pilots will then move on to receive basic training on the F-16, also known as B-Course. Denmark has been selected as the initial training location for Ukrainian personnel on the F-16 until the construction of a dedicated training center in Romania is completed. According to Hecker, the first Ukrainian pilots will not be ready to fly the F-16 fighter before early 2024. 

What F-16 variant will Denmark and the Netherlands be supplying to Ukraine? 

Denmark and the Netherlands will be providing F-16A/B Block 20 MLU (Mid-Life Update) variants that represent late iterations of the 45-year-old fighter jet. These aircraft were modernized through the MLU program between 2003 and 2005 with enhanced avionics, improved radar systems, and upgraded weaponry. With radars such as the APG66 and missiles like the AIM-120 with a range of up to 150 kilometers, they ensure formidable air superiority. 

The F-16 MLU features a Head-Up Display (HUD) compatible with night operations, a GPS receiver, and a Westinghouse (now Northrop Grumman) AN/APG-66 fire control radar allowing it to carry and fire six AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, with an operational range of 150 kilometers (95 miles). It can drop guided bombs such as the GBU-24 Paveway III or the Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM). This variant of the fighter also possesses the capability to carry Sniper and Litening targeting pods.  

These F-16 fighters will have the capacity to deploy a wide array of bombs and missiles, making them adaptable to various mission profiles for Ukraine. However, these missions will be limited by the training received by pilots. 

“You can get proficient on some weapons systems fairly quickly. But ones like F-16s, it takes a while to build,” Hecker explained, adding that fielding a few F-16 squadrons with a high enough state of readiness could take four to five years. 

As such, their role could initially be limited to defending Kyiv and other large Ukrainian cities from Russia’s cruise missiles such as the 3M54 Kalibr and the Kh-22, or the Iran-made Shahed-136 kamikaze drones. 

The UAV, whose model and operator are unknown, targeted the Soltsy-2 air base in Novgorod Oblast. Russian authorities have blamed the Ukrainian military for the attack.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the “copter-type” drone was fired upon with small arms in an attempt to shoot it down. The attack resulted in a significant fire breaking out on the airfield’s apron. One aircraft sustained damage due to the incident, the ministry confirmed. There were no reported casualties among military personnel or civilians.

Located 660 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, the base houses a number of Tupolev Tu-22M3 “Backfire” aircraft, a strategic bomber with a variable-sweep wing developed during the Soviet era. Operated by four crew members, this aircraft can reach speeds above 2,000 kilometers per hour and deliver more than 12 tons of ordnance, either conventional or nuclear. The Russian Federation has regularly used Tu-22M3 bombers for missile attacks on Ukraine, using Kh-22 supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles.

The Twitter account @olga_pp98, which monitors Russia’s strategic aviation forces using HF radio emissions, reported that at least six Tu-22M3 aircraft relocated from Soltsy-2 to Olenya air base, located north of the Arctic Circle in the Kola Peninsula, later on August 19, 2023.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken sent an official approval letter to his counterpart from each country expressing the Biden administration’s support for the delivery. 

“I am writing to express the United States’ full support for both the transfer of F-16 fighter aircraft to Ukraine and for the training of Ukrainian pilots by qualified F-16 instructors,” Blinken said in a letter seen by Reuters. 

However, the delivery timeline hinges on the training for the six Ukrainian pilots tasked with operating the aircraft. According to reports from the Washington Post, the group of six handpicked Ukrainian pilots, already fluent in English, and several technicians will undergo a thorough training program to ensure their readiness for flying and servicing the F-16 jets.  

The training comprises four months of technical proficiency in English and six months of operational training. 

During the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania on July 11, 2023, eleven partner states signed a Memorandum outlining the terms of a coalition, spearheaded by Denmark and the Netherlands, to train the Ukrainian Air Force to fly the F-16, and to find solutions to deliver the aircraft to the country.   

The deal, valued in the low double-digit million-euro range, will see Rheinmetall supply Ukraine with the LUNA NG system, encompassing multiple Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) alongside a ground control station, launch catapult, safety net equipment for landing, and rapid repair capabilities.

The delivery is scheduled for late 2023, as part of a comprehensive aid package announced by the German federal government earlier in the year.

The LUNA NG drone, an evolution of the LUNA X-2000 used by the German army (Bundeswehr) since the 2000s, features a new aerodynamic and lightweight design. It can carry up to 30 kilograms of payload, with a total weight of 110 kilograms. The drone’s wingspan measures 5.3 meters. It can achieve a maximum speed of approximately 150 kilometers (about 95 miles) per hour. Additionally, it has a transmission range exceeding 100 kilometers (about 60 miles), can operate autonomously for over 12 hours, and reach an altitude ceiling of 5,000 meters (approximately 16,000 feet).

Ukraine’s current conflict highlighted the significance of real-time reconnaissance data provided by drones in shaping the course of military operations. While the current LUNA NG system being delivered to Ukraine is not armed, Rheinmetall plans to develop a weaponized variant.

The cargo ship, flying the flag of Palau, was initially set to head to the river port of Izmail in the Odesa region of Ukraine, having departed from Chalkis, Greece, on August 7, 2023.  

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the captain of the Sukru Okan failed to respond to orders to stop for inspection. 

“To force the ship to stop, a warning shot from automatic small arms was fired from the Russian warship,” the ministry reported. 

Subsequently, a team of Russian soldiers was hoisted onto the civilian vessel by a Kamov Ka-29 helicopter to conduct an inspection. 

The Kamov Ka-29, designated “Helix-B” by NATO, is a twin-rotor naval helicopter developed in the 1970s. It can accommodate up to 16 troops. The Ka-29 helicopter operates from Russian warships such as the Vasiliy Bykov and fulfills roles like troop transport, search and rescue, anti-submarine warfare, and, like in this case, airborne assault missions.  

Following the inspection, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the Sukru Okan was allowed to continue its journey to the port of Izmail. However, the cargo ship seems to have altered its course, moving into Turkish territorial waters and then into Bulgarian waters. At the time this article was published, the Sukru Okan was near the port of Sulina, Romania.  

The ministry emphasized that it considered any ships headed toward Ukraine as potentially transporting prohibited goods. This scrutiny follows the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 17, 2023, a deal previously reached by Ukraine and Russia to allow the export of agricultural products despite the ongoing war and the Russian-imposed blockade.   

On August 10, 2023, Ukrainian authorities announced they would attempt to establish “temporary corridors” in the Black Sea, aimed at allowing the departure of cargo ships trapped in its ports since the outbreak of the invasion. 

The Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missile was designed as the result of a collaborative effort between MBDA Deutschland and Saab Bofors Dynamics. It features stealth characteristics and a range exceeding 500 kilometers (310 miles). The missile is powered by a turbofan engine, achieving speeds of Mach 0.8 to 0.9, and is compatible with aircraft such as the Tornado, JAS 39 Gripen, F/A-18 Hornet, and F-15E Strike Eagle.  

In late May 2023, Ukraine asked the German government to provide Taurus cruise missiles. The idea was initially dismissed, however, with German politicians concerned that Ukraine would use the Taurus missiles to attack Russian territory.  

As recently as August 3, 2023, Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius spoke out against the delivery of the cruise missiles to Ukraine, adding that there was “no urgent need for a decision.” 

But in an interview with the Tagesspiegel on August 8, 2023, Nils Schmid, the foreign policy spokesman for the Social Democratic Party (SPD) parliamentary group, seemed to have warmed up to the idea. 

“I do not rule out that we will also supply other systems such as Taurus in conjunction with the Americans,” commented Schmid. “Before it must be ensured that the Ukrainians themselves can take over the target programming and not Bundeswehr soldiers – that would bring us dangerously close to direct war involvement.” 

The debate gained further momentum when the next day, Yegor Chernev, Head of the Ukrainian Parliament delegation to the NATO Assembly, disclosed that he had received information from his German counterparts regarding an apparent positive consensus among the main parliamentary factions of the Bundestag. 

“My friends in the Bundestag have just informed me that the key parliamentary factions have reached a consensus on the transfer of long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine,” Chernev said on Facebook. “For a long time, we worked with German parliamentarians to form a support group, and now, finally, the ice has broken. We are waiting for an official decision.” 

Not the first long-range cruise missile provided to Ukraine

Ukraine has received two previous shipments of SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow long-range missiles. On May 11, 2023, the commitment from the United Kingdom to furnish Storm Shadow long-range missiles to the Ukrainian military marked a significant step up in Western support. Further enhancing this momentum, French President Emmanuel Macron declared that France was poised to supply SCALP long-range missiles to Ukraine at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania on July 11, 2023. 

Similar to the Taurus missiles, this British-French weapon possesses the capability to engage targets within a radius of 560 kilometers (350 miles). However, the export versions have been carefully modified, confining their operational range to 250 kilometers (155 miles). This limitation aligns with previous assurances granted by Ukrainian officials to the United Kingdom that the deployment of these missiles will not be aimed at penetrating deep into Russian territory. 

On August 6, 2023, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense celebrated the SCALP-EG delivery with a picture showing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky writing a message on one of these missiles, before suggesting that the weapons were later used to target the bridges of Chonhar and Henichesk, which link Crimea to mainland Ukraine.  

From sections of the fuselage frame and engine blades to landing gear and the numerous bolts and fasteners that hold sections of the aircraft together, the list of aircraft components containing titanium alloys is extensive.  

The aerospace industry has long recognized the properties of this highly tensile metal. Titanium is resistant to heat and corrosion and boasts a high strength-to-weight ratio. It offers a strength similar to that of steel, but at a fraction of the weight. This is particularly crucial in an industry that is eager to find ways to cut down on weight in order to make planes more fuel efficient.  

What’s more, titanium can be combined with composites, plastic-like lightweight materials increasingly used in aircraft manufacturing. 

The degree to which titanium is used in aircraft manufacturing continues to increase. While the first version of the Boeing 747, developed in the 1960s, included less than 3% titanium, that proportion jumped to almost 9% in the first version of the Boeing 777 which flew in the mid 90s. In contemporary airliners such as the Boeing 787-9, the amount is closer to 15%.  

More than half of the world’s titanium supply is consumed by aerospace manufacturing and any disruption to the supply of this essential metal could sent shockwaves across the industry. 

Many industries have been affected by generalized supply chain issues in the last couple of years, but the global titanium market has had to deal with problems of its own, given that a large share of the world’s titanium supply comes from Russia. 

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to both Airbus and Boeing announcing a reshuffling of their titanium supply chains.  

Before the war, Russia had been a major titanium supplier to both Boeing and Airbus. 

In fact, the role of Russia as a source of titanium was such that the American aircraft manufacturer had even set up a joint venture with VSMPO-AVISMA, which is part of Rostec, an industrial and defence conglomerate owned by the Russian government. 

As recently as November 2021, barely three months before the start of the war and with tensions with Ukraine already running high, Boeing and VSMPO-AVISMA signed an agreement to prolong and expand their collaboration. It is estimated that around one third of the titanium used by Boeing came from Russia. 

In the case of the Airbus, reliance on Russian titanium supplies was even more significant. There was no joint venture in place comparable to the one between Boeing and VSMPO-AVISMA, but even so, the European aircraft manufacturer is said to have been sourcing around half of its required titanium from Russia. 

The war has changed that completely.  

As soon as Russian tanks started to roll towards Kyiv, both Boeing and Airbus announced they were dissociating themselves from their respective Russian procurement deals. 

Even by March 2022, Boeing was announcing that it had sufficient titanium stocks to keep up with its regular production rates and that it had managed to find alternative suppliers for its titanium needs. 

In response to questions from AeroTime, a source at Boeing stated: “Boeing currently sources titanium predominantly in the U.S. We suspended the purchase of Russian titanium in March 2022” – thereby confirming the move away from Russian titanium. 

Airbus also announced its willingness to stop buying Russian titanium, although the decoupling appears to have been taking longer to implement. As of December 2022, reports in the media suggested that Airbus was still struggling to cut its ties to Russian suppliers. 

Unlike with other commodities, Russia is not in fact the primary source of titanium ores. 

They are mined in places like China, Australia, Kazakhstan, Mozambique – and, rather remarkably in the circumstances, Ukraine.  

Russia’s importance in the titanium supply chain is based on its position in the further stages of processing, with VSMPO-AVISMA being a major producer of titanium sponge, which is the form into which the metal is first smelted, turning it into a porous material.  

After that, titanium is further processed to make ingots, panes and other semi-processed forms. These are then further transformed, via the use of specialized machine tools, into all manner of parts and components. 

Outside of China, the other major players in the titanium market are Japanese companies such as Osaka Titanium and Toho Titanium. 

Not surprisingly, global titanium prices shot up by around 90% in the months following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The market seems to have calmed down somewhat since then, with prices stalling and even starting to revert back to pre-war levels. That’s according to Prashant Metha, managing partner at Titanium Horizon, a titanium trading firm based in Ahmedabad, India, which works mainly with the aerospace and medical industries.  

The solution is therefore not so much a matter of getting access to sources of raw material, but of reshuffling the production capacity at different stages of the titanium transformation process.  

A 2022 report by Efeso Management Consultants, a consultancy firm specialized in optimization of industrial processes, concluded that US and Japanese firm – though not so much their European counterparts, since these industrial capabilities are mostly absent in Europe – should be capable to build additional titanium processing capacity. However, in execution this would take several months and significant capital investment running into dozens of millions of dollars. 

Stock prices of both Osaka Titanium and Toho Titanium more than tripled in the months following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. 

While industrial capacity in the titanium industry is reorganized to reflect this new reality, aerospace firms may need to rely a lot more on existing stocks and the scrap market – that is, reusing metal chips cut away during the titanium metalworking process. 

“Since titanium has become a lot scarcer and more expensive, the value of the chips that come out of the cutting process has increased, because these can be recovered, remelted and reworked,” explains Dean Richmond, Global director of Aerospace at Master Fluid Solutions, a company that provides fluids used as a lubricant and coolant during the titanium cutting process. 

In an example of how a geopolitical shock can reverberate through the most unexpected segments of an industry, Richmond explained to AeroTime that Master Fluid Solutions had noticed increasing demand for its specialty fluids. Those contain particles called microsols that speed up the drying process for titanium scrap chips, making it possible for operators to re-introduce them into the industrial reprocessing chain more quickly. 

Regardless of what happens in the frontlines in Ukraine, it’s therefore likely that the industry will undergo a major, long-lasting reorganization that should see American and Japanese companies take a more prominent role. Meanwhile Russia, mimicking what has happened in other industries, may lean towards China. 

Prashant Metha, of Horizon Titanium, is bullish on the prospects of the titanium market, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. “Many countries, India, China, Korea…are building up their aerospace industries as well as all the related auxiliary industry to make parts and components and they are going to need larger quantities of titanium in years to come,” he affirmed. 

A big question mark is what kind of role Europe might play in the future of the industry. The EU is a major player in the global aerospace industry, with major companies such as Airbus, Rolls-Royce and Safran. Surprisingly, though, it lacks any significant presence in the titanium processing market. Will European industrialists and policymakers see the titanium supply chain as an area in which they might further develop the continent’s strategic autonomy? 

The attack occurred during the night and involved the firing of two Kalibr missiles from a submarine stationed in the Black Sea.  

Eight Iranian kamikaze drones, known as Shahed-136/131 were also launched from Primosko-Akhtarsk in Krasnodar Krai and targeted other areas of Ukraine. 

The Ukrainian Air Force reports having destroyed all loitering munitions in the Khmelnytskyi, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk regions but failed to intercept the Kalibr missiles targeted at Odesa. 

“A civilian guard lost his life as a result of the missile strike,” regional governor Oleh Kiper said on Telegram. “Additionally, one of the cargo terminals suffered extensive damage, and a security building along with two cars was completely destroyed.” 

According to Natalya Gumenyuk, head of the joint press center of Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command, Russia took advantage of weather conditions and launched missiles “during a windy thunderstorm, at extremely low altitude, to complicate their detection.” 

Over the past few days, the region of Odesa has been facing relentless Russian attacks with the aim of destroying its grain export infrastructure after the Black Sea Grain Initiative came to an end on July 17, 2023. 

On July 23, 2023, Russian strikes also damaged several monuments in the historic center of Odesa, including the Cathedral of the Transfiguration. The attack left six dead and 22 injured.   

According to the NACP, Clark was added to the list due to his affiliation with Dubai Port Word (DP World). The United Arab Emirates (UAE)-based company specializes in logistics and operation of port terminals, maritime services, and free trade zones. 

DP World lists Clark as an “Independent Non-Executive Director”. 

The NACP included the company, along with its 10 executives, on the ISW list after the port operator signed an agreement with Rosatom, the Russian state company focused on nuclear and atomic energy, on June 15, 2023. 

At the time, the Russian company announced that, alongside DP World, it would “develop the Eurasian logistics and container shipping along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), a potential new trade route connecting Asia and Europe, which would add much-needed resilience to the global trade landscape”. 

The NACP announced its decision on July 17, 2023, arguing that not only has DP World failed to cease doing business with Russia, but strengthened its “cooperation with the aggressor”. 

“After the signing of the agreement with Rosatom, the head of the government of the Russian Federation Mykhailo Mishustin said that the development of the Northern Sea Route is a strategic project that will bring about 20 trillion rubles (224 billion USD) to the Russian budget,” the NACP continued, adding that this directly confirms the deal “benefits the terrorist state from cooperating with DP World”. 

Clark did not attend the signing ceremony in Saint Petersburg, Russia. Group chairman and chief executive officer (CEO) Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem represented DP World instead. 

According to DP World, Clark was appointed to his role on June 1, 2022. 

Per NACP, adding entities and individuals is “reputational only”. As such, it has no legal repercussions. 

In April 2022, Clark told the BBC that Emirates would continue flying to Russia unless the UAE government tells the airline otherwise, adding that it was “not his call”.  

Currently, Emirates flies to two Russian airports, Moscow Domodedovo Airport (DME) and St. Petersburg Pulkovo International Airport (LED). 

“On the morning of July 24, an attempt by the Kyiv regime to carry out a terrorist act using two drones on facilities located in Moscow was thwarted,” the ministry said. “Electronic warfare systems jammed two Ukrainian drones, causing them to crash. There are no victims.” 

According to the Russian news agency TASS, one of the drones fell on Komsomolsky Avenue, hundreds of meters away from the Russian Defense Ministry. Another hit a business center on Likhatchova Prospekt, near one of Moscow’s main ring boulevards. 

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova qualified the attack as “an act of international terrorism.” The Ukrainian authorities did not claim responsibility for the drone strikes. 

In May 2023, the Russian presidency claimed that two Ukrainian drones targeted the Kremlin in an attempt to kill President Vladimir Putin.   

Przynajmniej dwa ukraińskie drony dalekiego zasięgu „Bóbr” uderzyły dziś w cele w Moskwie. Jeden uderzył w pobliżu zabudować rosyjskiego Ministerstwa Obrony. pic.twitter.com/2nfFQJJnr4

— Michał Nowak (@nowakkmichal) July 24, 2023

Retaliation for Odesa? 

The drone attacks in Moscow come a day after Russian strikes on the Ukrainian port city of Odesa, which left six dead and 22 injured.  

During the attack, Russia launched 19 cruise missiles, nine of which were reportedly intercepted by the Ukrainian Air Force. Warehouses storing grain were destroyed. The port of Reni, located 700 meters away from Romania across the Danube River, was among the targets. 

For several days now, Russian attacks have targeted the region in an attempt to destroy grain export infrastructure. Ukraine previously used Odesa and its ports to export its agricultural products despite the ongoing war and the Russian-imposed blockade, as part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. However, the agreement expired on July 17, 2023. The following day strikes reportedly destroyed 60,000 tons of grain meant for export and stored in the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk, near Odesa. 

The attack also damaged several monuments in the historic center of Odesa, including the Cathedral of the Transfiguration, the first Orthodox church in the city founded in 1794.  

“At least 44 buildings were damaged, 25 of which are architectural monuments,” regional governor Oleh Kiper said on Telegram. 

UNESCO, which at the beginning of the year had listed the historic center of Odessa as a World Heritage Site, condemned the latest Russian strikes. 

“This outrageous destruction marks an escalation of violence against cultural heritage of Ukraine,” Audrey Azoulay, UNESCO Director-General, said in a statement. 

“Missiles against peaceful cities, against residential buildings, a cathedral… There can be no excuse for Russian evil,” said President Volodymyr Zelensky. “There will definitely be a retaliation to Russian terrorists for Odesa.” 

The low-cost carrier announced the news as its Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Michael O’Leary visited Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 20, 2023. There, O’Leary met with Oleksandr Kubrakov, the Deputy Prime Minister for the Restoration of Ukraine and Minister for Infrastructure, and Oleksiy Dubrevskyy, the CEO of Kyiv Borispil International Airport (KBP). 

Ryanair’s delegation, comprised of senior management of the airline, looked at KBP’s terminals and other infrastructure, “where they saw the excellent state of the airport infrastructure and its operational readiness to resume flights when safe to do so”. 

“Ryanair remains a committed partner in rebuilding and investing in Ukraine aviation. Today we saw that in the most difficult conditions of war, the Boryspil airport team demonstrates its professionalism and is fully ready for the resumption of flights as soon as possible,” O’Leary said. 

According to the Irish airline group, it will be prepared to launch 600 weekly flights from/to Ukraine within eight weeks of the country’s air space opening up. Among the 600 weekly flights, Ryanair plans to operate international flights to over 20 capitals in the European Union (EU), as well as domestic flights between Kyiv, Lviv, and Odesa. 

All in all, Ryanair plans to offer over five million seats to and from the war-ravaged country, increasing the capacity to over 10 million seats in a five-year period. To offer those seats, the carrier will place up to 30 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, that are worth over $3 billion in list prices, which typically are unrepresentative of the true prices of aircraft, in the three Ukrainian cities. 

O’Leary noted that Ryanair was the second-largest airline in Ukraine before February 2022, when Russia unlawfully invaded the country. 

“The fastest way to rebuild and restore the Ukrainian economy will be with low fare air travel,” he added. 

Kubrakov said that while it is vital to maintain the operability of the country’s airports and the skills of employees working in the industry, Ukraine is already working on a plan to resume flights as soon as the war ends. 

“I strongly believe that Boryspil Airport will remain the main air gate for the return of our citizens to Ukraine and will continue to play a leading role in the recovery of the Ukrainian economy,” Dubresvkyy concluded. 

The attack involved a total of 63 weapons deployed from air, ground, and naval platforms, according to the Ukrainian Air Force. The breakdown of the weapons used is as follows:

• 16 Kalibr cruise missiles launched from naval platforms, possibly from the small missile ship “Ingushetia” and the frigate “Admiral Essen” in the Black Sea. 
• 8 Kh-22 cruise missiles fired from Tu-22M3 long-range bombers operating over the Black Sea. 
• 6 P-800 Oniks cruise missiles launched from the coastal missile complex “Bastion” in Crimea. 
• 1 Kh-59 guided aviation missile fired from a Su-35 fighter jet operating over the Black Sea. 
• 32 Iranian-made Shahed-136/131 kamikaze drones deployed from the Chauda range in Crimea and Primosko-Akhtarsk in Krasnodar Krai. 

Air Force Command of UA Armed Forces

The Ukrainian Air Force’s anti-aircraft defense units reported the successful interception of 37 airborne threats, namely 13 Kalibr cruise missiles, the Kh-59 guided aviation missile, and 23 Shahed-136/131 drones. Noticeably, the Kh-22 and P-800 Oniks cruise missiles, the fastest of the weapons deployed, managed to evade interception. 

60,000 tons of grain destroyed, according to the Ukrainian agriculture ministry

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused the Russian military of having “deliberately targeted” sites used for grain export. 

“Russian terrorists absolutely deliberately targeted the infrastructure of the grain agreement, and every Russian missile is a blow not only to Ukraine, but also to everyone in the world who seeks a normal and safe life,” Zelenskyy said in a Telegram post. 

According to the Ukrainian agriculture ministry, 60,000 tons of grain meant for export and stored in the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk, near Odesa, were destroyed. 

“The grain infrastructure of international and Ukrainian traders and carriers Kernel, Viterra, CMA CGM Group was the most affected,” Ukraine’s agriculture minister Mykola Solskyi said in a statement in which he shared pictures of the damage. “This is a terrorist act not against Ukraine, but against the whole world. The food security of which is again under threat.” 

Odesa and its region house ports that previously allowed Ukraine to export its agricultural products despite the ongoing war and the Russian-imposed blockade, as part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.  

However, on July 18, 2023, the Kremlin announced it had no intentions to allow grain exports through the Black Sea anymore, warning that there were no more “security guarantees” after the agreement expired a day before. 

Questioned by reporters after a parliamentary hearing on July 18, 2023, Chiu firmly denied the claims. Instead, the minister stated that the missiles that are still under the custody of the Chinese Academy of Sciences will be disposed of following the established procedures for decommissioned military equipment. Chiu emphasized that the handling of these missiles would adhere to proper scrapping protocols, ensuring their destruction in an appropriate manner.  

This response from the minister comes amid speculation surrounding the fate of the decommissioned missiles. The Taiwanese news portal China Times reported on July 14, 2023, that up to 100 Hawk missiles would be transferred to the United States. 

The minister also commented on Taiwan’s plan to acquire the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Defense Missile System or NASAMS Type 2 from the United States.  

Chiu pointed to the ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russia as evidence of the system’s exceptional performance and its potential value for the country’s defense capabilities. To this day, eight NASAMS were delivered to Ukraine in an effort to bolster the defense of its airspace. 

However, despite acknowledging the system’s effectiveness, the minister clarified that no official agreement has been reached at this stage.  

The Taiwanese Armed Forces currently utilize various air defense systems to protect the country’s airspace. These include the US-made MIM-104 Patriot and the indigenous Sky Bow, or Tien Kung anti-ballistic missile and anti-aircraft defense systems.

Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s Minister of Defense, expressed his gratitude to colleagues from Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Canada, Luxembourg, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Sweden and the United Kingdom.  

“F-16s will protect Ukraine’s skies and NATO’s Eastern Flank,” Reznikov commented. “The Ukrainian Air Force is prepared to master them as quickly as possible.” 

France seems to be absent from the coalition, despite French President Emmanuel Macron announcing that he had “opened the door to train pilots” for Ukraine on May 15, 2023, a day after his discussions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. AeroTime has sent a request for comment to the French military. 

Under the agreement, Ukrainian pilots, technicians and support staff will have the opportunity to participate in specialized training, allowing them to gain proficiency in operating the F-16 fighter jets. Moreover, the Memorandum highlights the possibility of incorporating other types of fighter aircraft into the training program, further diversifying Ukraine’s military capabilities. 

Denmark has been selected as the initial training location for Ukrainian personnel, until construction is completed on a dedicated training center in Romania. The training is expected to start in late summer, according to the Danish Ministry of Defense. 

“The first step is to train the Ukrainians to be able to fly, service and maintain F-16 aircraft at a basic tactical and technical level,” said Denmark’s Acting Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen. “Ukraine needs planes. […] The question of possible donation must follow. It will require support from several countries.” 

In late June 2023, the Royal Danish Air Force (RDAF), known as the Flyvevåbnet, announced that it would retire its fleet of F-16 fighter jets from service as early as 2024 or 2025, contrary to an existing plan to keep them operational until 2027. These 33 aircraft will be redirected toward the coalition’s effort to provide F-16 fighters to Ukraine.  

This decision comes following the commitment made by the United Kingdom to provide Storm Shadow long-range missiles to the Ukrainian military on May 11, 2023.

France had previously refrained from delivering such weaponry due to concerns over the risk of their potential use on Russian territory.  

“I think today what is important for us is to send a message of support to Ukraine, of NATO unity,” Macron said at the summit. 

The Kremlin reacted to the announcement by calling the delivery of French long-range missiles to Ukraine a “mistake.”

“From our point of view, this is a mistaken decision, with serious consequences for the Ukrainian side, because naturally, it will force us to take countermeasures,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov

What is the SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow missile?

The SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow cruise missile is a British-French weapon developed in the 1990s by Matra and British Aerospace and is now manufactured by the European missile maker MBDA.   

This weapon is capable of striking targets at a radius of 560 kilometers (350 miles). However, the export models have been specifically modified to operate at a reduced range of 250 kilometers (155 miles).   

This modification is in line with assurances previously provided to the United Kingdom by Ukrainian officials, who have stated that the missiles will not be used to target deep into Russian territory. Instead, they will be deployed solely within the borders of Ukraine’s sovereign territory. 

One of these missiles was allegedly used in June 2023 in the destruction of the Chonhar bridge that connects Crimea with Russian-held parts of the southern Kherson region.  

The unconfirmed footage is filmed from the perspective of the Pantsir. It first shows the tracking radar detecting the Storm Shadow before moving to the electro-optic sensors of the system successfully locking onto the incoming cruise missile. The air defense system fires two 95Ya6 interceptor missiles, but both fail to hit their target. The Storm Shadow continues its course and eventually explodes, likely when reaching its target. 

It is unclear at this point when or where the video was filmed. Ukraine has been using Storm Shadow missiles since May 2023.

Russian Pantsir-S shooting at Storm Shadow.
Missed twice. pic.twitter.com/LkBv84Et94

— Smart Ukrainian Cat (@SmartUACat) June 22, 2023

The Pantsir-S1 versus the Storm Shadow 

The Pantsir-S1 is an air defense system developed by the KBP Instrument Design Bureau in Tula, Russia. It is composed of a maximum of six launchers per battery along with one command center. It has a maximum range of approximately 20 kilometers (12 miles) and can reach an altitude of up to 15 kilometers (50,000 feet). According to its manufacturer, the missile can engage targets flying at a maximum speed of 3,600 kilometers per hour (2,240 miles per hour). The launchers are also equipped with two 2A38M double-barreled anti-aircraft guns. 

The Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missile is a British-French weapon developed in the 1990s by Matra and British Aerospace and is now manufactured by the European missile maker MBDA. Although the Storm Shadow missile is capable of striking targets at a radius of 560 kilometers (350 miles), the export models have been specifically modified to operate at a reduced range of 250 kilometers (155 miles). The missile flies at a top speed of Mach 0.8 (988 kilometers per hour or 615 miles per hour).  

The United Kingdom has delivered Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles to Ukraine. One of which was allegedly used in June 2023 in the destruction of the Chonhar bridge that connects Crimea with Russian-held parts of the southern Kherson region. 

/1.4. Clear video of a missile strike on the Chongar bridge. https://t.co/ZqUEUx3l80 pic.twitter.com/1zfsT56P6j

— Special Kherson Cat (@bayraktar_1love) June 22, 2023

Poulsen stated that the 33 F-16s would be withdrawn from service as early as 2024 or 2025, contrary to the previous plan of keeping them operational until 2027 with an investment of €150 million. 

In June 2022, the ministry announced it would maintain the F-16 fleet operational for domestic air defense missions and allow the RDAF to participate in NATO missions, such as the Baltic Air Policing mission.  

Insufficient numbers of the newer Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II fighters and their anticipated technical unavailability had contributed to this decision, as they were unable to meet the requirements for pilot training, daily missions, and potential deployments abroad. 

New timeline for the Danish F-35 

However, Poulsen has now reconsidered this decision, citing the F-35As’ anticipated operational readiness sooner than expected.  

During an interview with the public broadcasting channel DR, he gave details on the updated timeline for the Danish F-35As, which prompted the reassessment of the retirement plan for the F-16s. 

Currently, the RDAF has received seven out of the 27 F-35As that were ordered. These aircraft are currently stationed in the advanced training facilities of the Luke Air Force Base in Arizona for pilot training purposes. In autumn 2023, one of the F-35As, specifically the seventh delivery, will arrive at Skrydstrup Air Base in southern Jutland. 

Opening F-16 deliveries to Ukraine 

The Danish government’s decision to retire the F-16s is also connected to its intention to provide support to Ukraine. While no official confirmation has been made, Copenhagen is reportedly finalizing the details to transfer a certain number of F-16s to Ukraine. Additionally, discussions are underway regarding the possibility of training Ukrainian pilots at Skrydstrup Air Base.  

Poulsen hinted that this endeavor might require Flyvevåbnet to temporarily withdraw from NATO activities.  

“Denmark can’t do everything, and now, together with the Netherlands, we have taken the initiative to lead this training effort,” the minister said. “We are motivated to provide this support as it can serve as a valuable contribution, enabling the Ukrainians to receive donated F-16 fighter jets at a time when they will be fully capable of utilizing them effectively.” 

An international coalition was formed to train Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-16. Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren told Reuters that training could begin as early as the end of summer 2023. 

In fact, it appears that, while Wagner forces met very little resistance on the ground as they advanced towards Moscow from the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, they were engaged by several aircraft of the Russian armed forces, mostly rotary-wing. 

Telegram channels said to be closely affiliated with the Russian military claimed that at least 7 aircraft had been downed during these actions, with over a dozen Russian airmen losing their lives. 

At least one Ka-52 attack helicopter (registration RF-13418) has been visually confirmed to have been downed, most likely by surface to air missiles.  

The deadliest incident seems to have been the downing of an Ilyushin Il-22VZPU airborne command aircraft with the loss of its crew of eight. Video footage showed the aircraft spinning to the ground out of control after being hit by air defenses during the early stage of the insurrection. 

Other aircraft said, according to Telegram channels said to be closely affiliated with the Russian military, to have been downed include 3 Mi-8MTPRs (the electronic warfare version of this ubiquitous helicopter model), a regular Mi-8 and a Mi-35M.

Wagner forces are reportedly equipped with several air defense systems, including Pantsir-S1 and Strela S-10 in addition to Igla MANPADS. 

These have been employed against Russian air assets deployed against the advancing Wagner column, as shown in videos circulating on social media, which show a Ka-52 attack helicopter narrowly evading a Strela S-10 ground to air missile, with the help of countermeasures. 

Wagner forces started to withdraw back to their bases in the evening of June 24, 2023, after the group’s chief, Evgeniy Prigozhin announced it had struck a deal with the Kremlin through the mediation of Belarusian president Aleksandr Lukashenko. 

In the morning of June 25, 2023, however, new reports emerged on social media channels, that Wagner forces were still in control of air bases in Rostov and Millerovo, near the Ukrainian border. 

The seizure is being carried out as part of Canada’s response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine that commenced on February 24, 2022.

The targeted aircraft is an Antonov An-124 belonging to the Volga-Dnepr Group. The aircraft, registered as RA-82078, has been stuck at Toronto Pearson International Airport (YYZ) since February 27, 2022, according to ch-aviation.com data.

Volga-Dnepr Group and its cargo subsidiary Volga-Dnepr Airlines recently faced sanctions imposed by Canada, due to the company’s participation in the invasion of Ukraine.

“Today, Canada is sending a clear message to the Russian regime that there will be nowhere left to hide for those who support and profit from the Kremlin’s war of aggression,” Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs said in a press release. “Canada has been there to support Ukraine’s fight for freedom since day one and we will continue to be there through their victory to aid in their reconstruction efforts.”

The government of Canada has announced it would collaborate with the government of Ukraine in exploring various options for redistributing the seized asset. The objective is to utilize the asset for compensating victims of human rights abuses, restoring international peace and security, and contributing to the rebuilding efforts in Ukraine.

In total, Volga-Dnepr Airlines, which operates a fleet of 10 Antonov An-124 aircraft, is facing challenges with four of these planes stranded at various international airports. Aside from the aircraft seized by the Canadian government, three Ruslan planes are stuck at Leipzig/Halle Airport (LEJ) in Germany.

Senators Marsha Blackburn (a Republican from Tennessee) and Mark Warner (a Democrat from Virginia) introduced the Stemming The Operation of Pernicious and Illicit (STOP Illicit) Drones Act on June 8, 2023. Both Senators are members of the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, with Warner being the committee Chairman. 

If passed, the bill would prohibit the FAA from giving federal funds to certain drone companies, with the agency being unable to direct funds through several programs to manufacturers based in China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela and Cuba. Furthermore, the STOP Illicit Act would ban the FAA from procuring or operating drones built in those same countries. 

However, the bill does exempt cases when using drones for “detection or counter-UAS testing and warfare analysis and operations”. 

The FAA would have to replace any foreign-made drones with US or ally-built drones within a year, while also submitting a report to Congress on how many drones could violate the act. Furthermore, the FAA would have to report the changes it made to its procurement and contracting process in order to avoid violating the act. 

“Drones have the potential to transform key industries and aspects of our society – from agriculture, to emergency services, to deliveries, and so much more,” said Warner, adding that with the growth of the number of drones used in various sectors, “we need to make sure that we are not advancing the goals of our adversaries, who wish to saturate the market with drones that pose a threat to our national security.” 

Blackburn added that with “the New Axis of Evil” looking for every chance to take advantage of the US, “we cannot leave our critical technologies sector open to vulnerabilities”. 

“The STOP Illicit Drones Act helps curb the importation of drones produced by our adversaries, keeping our nation safer and encouraging manufacturing here at home,” she concluded. 

According to the Russian daily Izvestia, United States (US) authorities blocked the airline from flying its Boeing 737 MAX-8 aircraft into the country, citing two sources familiar with the matter. Since the ban, the Turkish airline sought capacity from other Russian airlines to transport passengers between the two countries. 

Southwind Airlines was established in 2022, shortly after Russia launched it invasion of Ukraine. According to planespotters.net data, only one of the airline’s eight aircraft, an Airbus A321 currently registered as TC-GRD, was not previously operated by a Russian airline. Two additional aircraft are scheduled to join the carrier’s fleet, an Airbus A321, currently registered as VQ-BOD (previously at Nordwind Airlines), and a Boeing 737 MAX-8, currently registered as VQ-BGW (ex-S7 Airlines). 

Izvestia also reported that former Nordwind Airlines crews are flying Southwind Airlines aircraft.  

According to the Russian daily, while the US cannot directly ban the airline from operating the 737 MAX between Turkey and Russia, a source close to the matter said that the US authorities either threatened sanctions against Southwind Airlines or added its 737 MAXs to the sanctioned asset list. 

Southwind Airlines or any of its aircraft are currently not included on the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctions list.  

However, out of the four 737 MAX-8 Southwind Airlines currently has listed in its fleet, one, registered as TC-GRM, has not flown in the past three months. Another, registered as TC-GRK, has not flown since April 2023. Interestingly, the aircraft was on its delivery flight from Boeing Field/King County International Airport (BFI), with the aircraft landing at Keflavik International Airport (KEF), Iceland, for a typical fuel stop on delivery to Turkey. It has been stuck at KEF since April 13, 2023. 

Another Southwind Airlines Boeing 737 MAX-8, registered as TC-GRO, made the same journey, continuing from KEF to Antalya Airport (AYT) in March 2023, flightradar24.com records showed. That aircraft was last seen in Russia on June 2, 2023, when it operated a flight from Novosibirsk Tolmachevo Airport (OVB) to AYT. It has not returned to the country since. 

The carrier’s last 737 MAX-8, TC-GRJ, has not flown to or from Russia since June 2, 2023, when it left Ufa International Airport (UFA).  

Since then, Southwind Airlines has been using its Airbus A321neo, registered as TC-GRE, as well as an A321, registered as TC-GRD, to fly between Turkey and Russia. Its wide-body aircraft, a pair of Airbus A330-200s and one Boeing 777-300ER, have also been absent from routes to the aggressor country. 

Footage of the attack surfaced online, showing the kamikaze drone hitting the radar while it was concealed in a forest near a supply truck.  

The Hensoldt TRML-4D radar system is an advanced air surveillance technology designed to detect and track airborne threats in real time. Mounted on a truck, it offers mobility and flexibility in deployment. This radar system plays a vital role in providing surveillance, target acquisition, and enabling the launch of IRIS-T missiles to counter and neutralize airborne threats. 

The IRIS-T SLM system, comprising the radar and other components, is composed of three launch vehicles and a mobile command center. This modern platform is capable of intercepting and destroying small air-to-air and surface-to-air missiles, such as the Russian 3M-54 Kalibr. The system has an operational range of 40 kilometers (25 miles). Ukraine received its first IRIS-T SLM system in October 2022, with a second system delivered in April 2023. 

Reports suggest that the attack on the Ukrainian radar system was carried out using loitering munitions from the Lancet series. These munitions have a limited operational range of around 40 kilometers (25 miles), indicating that the IRIS-T air defense system was deployed near the frontlines. The use of such munitions highlights the vulnerability of the radar system to attacks within close proximity. 

This incident has raised concerns due to the potential material loss it could represent for the Ukrainian military and the implications for their air defense capabilities. Currently, only one out of the seven TRML-4D radars pledged has been delivered, according to the official website documenting military assistance provided by Germany to Ukraine 

At 11:30 local time, at least seven Russian Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-31K attack aircraft took off from the Savasleyka air base, located in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast.  

The alerts were then progressively lifted by all regions as the MiG-31K flew away from their expected launch zones, according to @war_monitor, the Telegram channel monitoring Russian aircraft movements. 

The MiG-31K is a modified MiG-31BM variant capable of launching the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missile.  

With between 10 and 12 aircraft modified before the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the launch of seven of them represents a significant display of force, raising concerns about an impending bombing mission. 

What is the Kh-47M2 ‘Kinzhal’ hypersonic missile? 

Russia advertises the ‘Kinzhal’ as an air-launched hypersonic missile that can be carried by the Tu-22M bomber or the MiG-31K attack aircraft. 

According to official Russian sources, it has a top speed of either Mach 10 or Mach 12 (10 or 12 times the speed of sound). The ‘Kinzhal’ is likely based on the first stage of the Iskander, with the addition of a booster.  

Though not much is known about the warhead contents of the ‘Kinzhal, the Iskander is reported to carry a high-explosive conventional or thermonuclear weapon warhead weighing between 480 and 700 kilograms (1,060 and 1,540 pounds). 

During an intense missile attack on the morning of May 16, 2023, at least six Kh-47M2 hypersonic missiles were launched from MiG-31K fighters. 

The two countries went to court on June 6, 2023, over the shooting down of the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200ER, registered as 9M-MRD, when it was overflying eastern Ukraine.  

Ukraine, acting as the plaintiff in the case, alleged that Russia violated the UN’s anti-terrorism treaty by giving weapons and equipment to pro-Russia rebels in 2014, which were also ruled responsible for shooting down the Malaysia Airlines aircraft. 

“Russia cannot defeat us on the battlefield, so it targets civilian infrastructure to try to freeze us into submission,” said Anton Korynevych, the Ukrainian Ambassador-at-large at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, as reported by Reuters. 

Korynevych went on to describe Russia’s actions as those “of a terrorist state”. 

Three subsequent hearings are scheduled for June 8, June 12, and June 14, 2023, according to the ICJs calendar. 

The court will hear from the Russian side on June 8, 2023. 

The Malaysia Airlines aircraft had been operating flight MH17 between Amsterdam Schiphol Airport (AMS), the Netherlands, and Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KUL) when it was shot down by pro-Russian rebels.  

Judge Hendrik Steenhuis ruled that the aircraft was shot down by a Russian anti-air BUK missile on July 17, 2014. Steenhuis sentenced three of the four suspects to life sentences in November 2022. The suspects were tried in absentia. 

The unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) attacks began early in the morning on May 30, 2023, with at least eight drones causing minor damage, according to the BBC.  

Ukraine denied that it was responsible for the drone attack on Moscow but had enjoyed watching the situation unfold.  

It was reported that a number of drones fell on areas in Moscow where senior officials lived.  

Unconfirmed footage shared on social media showed drones in the air with some appearing to have been shot down.  

Rob Lee from the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) said the “Shot telegram channel claimed that, according to preliminary information, more than 30 UAVs were used”. 

Lee also added that the Russian Pantsir-s1 air defense system was reportedly used to engage with the drones.  

Pieces of debris that appeared to be the remains of destroyed UAVs were also pictured on what looked like residential roads.  

The attack follows three nights in which the capital of Ukraine has been heavily targeted by drones and missiles.  

In the latest overnight attack on Kyiv one person was killed and officials said 20 drones had been destroyed. 

Shortly after 10am local time, news and social media channels started to fill with reports of several explosions and air raid warning heard in and around Kyiv. Unlike in preceding attacks, it appears there was almost no advance warning this time, prompting speculations that Russia may have used surface to surface missiles this time.

Images shared on social media show civilians taking shelter in the city’s metro stations as well as the smouldering debris of what may be a Patriot interceptor on one of the city’s streets.

The preceding weekend, the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, was again attacked by a wave of Iranian-made Shahed 136 “kamikaze” drones (also referred to as “Geran-2” in Russia) launched by Russian forces in what is said to have been the largest scale attack using this type of weapon since the start of the war. 

Ukrainian sources claimed 52 out of 54 drones taking part in the attach were shot down by air defences. A man was killed and a woman was injured in the attacks, reportedly when falling debris from intercepted drones fell on a residential building. 

This attack takes place on the day when the city of Kyiv marks the anniversary of its foundation. 

Ukrainian cities have been regularly targeted by Russia, with a similar attack on Kyiv taking place only three days prior, in the early hours of May 25, 2023. On that occasion, Ukraine claimed to have shot down all of the 36 Shahed 136 drones involved in the attack.